Application of Quasi-induced Exposure to Estimate Relative Risk of Causing RTAs: a Case from Czech Republic

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F25940082%3A_____%2F23%3AN0000028" target="_blank" >RIV/25940082:_____/23:N0000028 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Application of Quasi-induced Exposure to Estimate Relative Risk of Causing RTAs: a Case from Czech Republic

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Background. The EU Road Safety Policy Framework 2021-2030 sets the goal of 50 % reduction in road traffic accident (RTA) related injuries and fatalities by 2030. This project aims to improve the understanding of the underlying risk factors of accidents, which is important for designing policies and measures aimed at the reduction of RTAs, fatalities, and injuries. Specifically, our paper focuses on the role of driver heterogeneity with respect to the risk of causing an RTA. Using a detailed administrative database of over 1m RTAs from the Czech Republic (2011-2021), we (1) estimate the relative risks (RR) across the known risk factors, in particular age and alcohol consumption, and (2) in cooperation with the Police Czech Republic we derive specific policy recommendations reflecting the results. Methods. The key challenge in estimating risk factors from accident data is the unobservability of risk exposure. We address this by leveraging the quasi-induced exposure (QIE) approach, which uses the not-at-fault drivers as a representative sample of the driving population. We pay special attention to the assumptions behind QIE and their empirical verification. Results. Our preliminary results show that the risk that drivers under the influence of alcohol produce an 11.7 (95 % CI 6.0-25.2) times higher risk of causing a fatal RCT than sober drivers. The estimated RR for drivers with BAC > 0.1 % is 35.2 (CI 9.3-297.0). Compared to drivers aged 25 to 64, young (age 18 to 24) and elderly (age 65+) drivers are 2.5 (CI 2.0-3.1) and 2.7 (CI 2.1-3.4) times more likely to cause a fatal RCT, respectively. Our tests of the underlying assumptions validate the QIE methodology in our data for fatal accidents. However, the key RR estimates for less severe accidents are quantitatively and qualitatively similar to those for fatal accidents. In addition to RR estimates, the QIE methodology also facilitates estimating the characteristics of the driving population and its variation across time and space. This information will be used by the police and other relevant agencies to improve the allocation of resources, preventive, and enforcement measures as well as information campaigns. [Presentation on The National Road Safety Conference 2023, 15 - 16 November 2023, Cirencester, UK].

Název v anglickém jazyce

Application of Quasi-induced Exposure to Estimate Relative Risk of Causing RTAs: a Case from Czech Republic

Popis výsledku anglicky

Background. The EU Road Safety Policy Framework 2021-2030 sets the goal of 50 % reduction in road traffic accident (RTA) related injuries and fatalities by 2030. This project aims to improve the understanding of the underlying risk factors of accidents, which is important for designing policies and measures aimed at the reduction of RTAs, fatalities, and injuries. Specifically, our paper focuses on the role of driver heterogeneity with respect to the risk of causing an RTA. Using a detailed administrative database of over 1m RTAs from the Czech Republic (2011-2021), we (1) estimate the relative risks (RR) across the known risk factors, in particular age and alcohol consumption, and (2) in cooperation with the Police Czech Republic we derive specific policy recommendations reflecting the results. Methods. The key challenge in estimating risk factors from accident data is the unobservability of risk exposure. We address this by leveraging the quasi-induced exposure (QIE) approach, which uses the not-at-fault drivers as a representative sample of the driving population. We pay special attention to the assumptions behind QIE and their empirical verification. Results. Our preliminary results show that the risk that drivers under the influence of alcohol produce an 11.7 (95 % CI 6.0-25.2) times higher risk of causing a fatal RCT than sober drivers. The estimated RR for drivers with BAC > 0.1 % is 35.2 (CI 9.3-297.0). Compared to drivers aged 25 to 64, young (age 18 to 24) and elderly (age 65+) drivers are 2.5 (CI 2.0-3.1) and 2.7 (CI 2.1-3.4) times more likely to cause a fatal RCT, respectively. Our tests of the underlying assumptions validate the QIE methodology in our data for fatal accidents. However, the key RR estimates for less severe accidents are quantitatively and qualitatively similar to those for fatal accidents. In addition to RR estimates, the QIE methodology also facilitates estimating the characteristics of the driving population and its variation across time and space. This information will be used by the police and other relevant agencies to improve the allocation of resources, preventive, and enforcement measures as well as information campaigns. [Presentation on The National Road Safety Conference 2023, 15 - 16 November 2023, Cirencester, UK].

Druh

O - Ostatní výsledky

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

50703 - Transport planning and social aspects of transport (transport engineering to be 2.1)

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/CK03000255" target="_blank" >CK03000255: Nová generace statistik dopravních nehod pro Policii ČR</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů