The accuracy of alternative GDP growth forecasts: Do they represent a credible alternative to the official ones?

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F26138077%3A_____%2F15%3A%230000765" target="_blank" >RIV/26138077:_____/15:#0000765 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/revecp-2015-0021" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/revecp-2015-0021</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/revecp-2015-0021" target="_blank" >10.1515/revecp-2015-0021</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

The accuracy of alternative GDP growth forecasts: Do they represent a credible alternative to the official ones?

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The paper deals with the accuracy of the real GDP growth forecasts produced by two Czech non-governmental institutions: the Czech-Moravian Confederation of Trade Unions (CMKOS) and the Czech Banking Association (CBA) in the years 2007- 2014 and 2011-2014respectively. Utilizing a research method composed of simple (AFE), scale-dependent (RMSE) as well as relative (MASE) error measures, we found out that (i) CMKOS predictions achieved a lower forecasting error on average, begin-ning with a notable overestimation in the first turnover point from growth to decline (2008-2009), yet followed by gradual improvement resulting in superior accuracy over set benchmarks (Ministry of Finance, Czech National Bank, OECD) in later years (2010-2014). The CBA predictions, on the other hand, exhibited (ii) a high level of interconnection with official bodies (MF, CNB), but with overall inferior forecasting accuracy, despite the shorter time frame (2011-2014). Overall, the study suggests that of the two

Název v anglickém jazyce

The accuracy of alternative GDP growth forecasts: Do they represent a credible alternative to the official ones?

Popis výsledku anglicky

The paper deals with the accuracy of the real GDP growth forecasts produced by two Czech non-governmental institutions: the Czech-Moravian Confederation of Trade Unions (CMKOS) and the Czech Banking Association (CBA) in the years 2007- 2014 and 2011-2014respectively. Utilizing a research method composed of simple (AFE), scale-dependent (RMSE) as well as relative (MASE) error measures, we found out that (i) CMKOS predictions achieved a lower forecasting error on average, begin-ning with a notable overestimation in the first turnover point from growth to decline (2008-2009), yet followed by gradual improvement resulting in superior accuracy over set benchmarks (Ministry of Finance, Czech National Bank, OECD) in later years (2010-2014). The CBA predictions, on the other hand, exhibited (ii) a high level of interconnection with official bodies (MF, CNB), but with overall inferior forecasting accuracy, despite the shorter time frame (2011-2014). Overall, the study suggests that of the two

Druh

J_x - Nezařazeno - Článek v odborném periodiku (Jimp, Jsc a Jost)

CEP obor

AH - Ekonomie

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

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Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2015

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Národohospodářský obzor

ISSN

1213-2446

e-ISSN

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Svazek periodika

15

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

3

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

36

Strana od-do

291-326

Kód UT WoS článku

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EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

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