Strategic voting in two-round elections: confirming the learning hypothesis in the Czech presidential elections of 2013?2023?

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F44555601%3A13410%2F25%3A43898568" target="_blank" >RIV/44555601:13410/25:43898568 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14782804.2024.2415679?src=exp-la#abstract" target="_blank" >https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14782804.2024.2415679?src=exp-la#abstract</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14782804.2024.2415679" target="_blank" >10.1080/14782804.2024.2415679</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Strategic voting in two-round elections: confirming the learning hypothesis in the Czech presidential elections of 2013?2023?

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

This paper explores whether strategic voting can also be identified in two-round electoral systems. We use aggregate data at the level of Czechia&apos;s 206 microregions to assess the incidence of strategic voting in the Czech presidential elections using two-round elections between 2013 and 2023. We find the following evidence of a considerable rise of strategic voting in the 2023 presidential election: (1) rise of support for the two strongest candidates nationally, as well as at the level of individual microregions; (2) decline of strategic failure and sincere voting indicated by shifting values of the second-first loser ratio; (3) increased electoral competition approaching strong competitive two-party dominance as shown by Nagayama diagrams. These results point to the importance of the &quot;learning hypothesis&quot; that strategic voting in new democracies tends to increase as voters (but also political elites) become more experienced with the electoral process. Furthermore, while we present a case study of a Czech presidential election, we also make an important contribution to the literature on strategic voting. Therefore, a theoretical contribution of this study also lies in its effort to apply the Duvergerian logic to a very different context of presidential elections in which electoral competition is highly personalised.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Strategic voting in two-round elections: confirming the learning hypothesis in the Czech presidential elections of 2013?2023?

Popis výsledku anglicky

This paper explores whether strategic voting can also be identified in two-round electoral systems. We use aggregate data at the level of Czechia&apos;s 206 microregions to assess the incidence of strategic voting in the Czech presidential elections using two-round elections between 2013 and 2023. We find the following evidence of a considerable rise of strategic voting in the 2023 presidential election: (1) rise of support for the two strongest candidates nationally, as well as at the level of individual microregions; (2) decline of strategic failure and sincere voting indicated by shifting values of the second-first loser ratio; (3) increased electoral competition approaching strong competitive two-party dominance as shown by Nagayama diagrams. These results point to the importance of the &quot;learning hypothesis&quot; that strategic voting in new democracies tends to increase as voters (but also political elites) become more experienced with the electoral process. Furthermore, while we present a case study of a Czech presidential election, we also make an important contribution to the literature on strategic voting. Therefore, a theoretical contribution of this study also lies in its effort to apply the Duvergerian logic to a very different context of presidential elections in which electoral competition is highly personalised.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50601 - Political science

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Journal of Contemporary European Studies

ISSN

1478-2804

e-ISSN

1478-2790

Svazek periodika

33

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

3

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

18

Strana od-do

751-767

Kód UT WoS článku

001336801300001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85206115356