Assessment of climate change on river streamflow under different representative concentration pathways

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F46747885%3A24620%2F24%3A00012425" target="_blank" >RIV/46747885:24620/24:00012425 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479724017407" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479724017407</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121754" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121754</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Assessment of climate change on river streamflow under different representative concentration pathways

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Climate change and excessive greenhouse gas emissions profoundly impact hydrological cycles, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, necessitating assessments of their effects on water resource management, agriculture, soil fertility, nutrient transport, hydropower generation, and flood risk. This study investigates climate change repercussions on streamflow in the Zarrineh River Basin, Iran, across three decadal intervals (2020–2029, 2055–2064, and 2090–2099) aiming to develop effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Four General Circulation Models (GCMs), chosen based on distinct Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) determined by the annual mean temperature gradient, are employed. These models generate daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures along with precipitation data. Subsequently, these variables are integrated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to analyze river flow alterations for each decadal timeframe. Comparison between future projections and observed climate data reveals a gradual decline in precipitation and Tmax, coupled with a substantial increase in Tmin. The average precipitation diminishes from 0.77 mm in the period 1985–1994 to a range of 0.42–0.28 mm in 2090–2099. The simulated flow at the basin outlet highlights that the GCM with the highest annual mean temperature gradient yields the lowest streamflow, while conversely, the model with the lowest gradient generates the highest. Consequently, streamflow experiences a decline from 52 m3/s in 1985–1994 to a range of 41–20 m3/s in 2090–2099.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Assessment of climate change on river streamflow under different representative concentration pathways

Popis výsledku anglicky

Climate change and excessive greenhouse gas emissions profoundly impact hydrological cycles, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, necessitating assessments of their effects on water resource management, agriculture, soil fertility, nutrient transport, hydropower generation, and flood risk. This study investigates climate change repercussions on streamflow in the Zarrineh River Basin, Iran, across three decadal intervals (2020–2029, 2055–2064, and 2090–2099) aiming to develop effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Four General Circulation Models (GCMs), chosen based on distinct Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) determined by the annual mean temperature gradient, are employed. These models generate daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures along with precipitation data. Subsequently, these variables are integrated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to analyze river flow alterations for each decadal timeframe. Comparison between future projections and observed climate data reveals a gradual decline in precipitation and Tmax, coupled with a substantial increase in Tmin. The average precipitation diminishes from 0.77 mm in the period 1985–1994 to a range of 0.42–0.28 mm in 2090–2099. The simulated flow at the basin outlet highlights that the GCM with the highest annual mean temperature gradient yields the lowest streamflow, while conversely, the model with the lowest gradient generates the highest. Consequently, streamflow experiences a decline from 52 m3/s in 1985–1994 to a range of 41–20 m3/s in 2090–2099.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10511 - Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7)

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Journal of environmental management

ISSN

0301-4797

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

336

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

August

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

12

Strana od-do

—

Kód UT WoS článku

001325514900001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85197798047