Assessing the impact of exchange rates on international trade in the manufacturing sector of CEE countries: A specific focus on SMEs

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F47813059%3A19520%2F24%3AA0000474" target="_blank" >RIV/47813059:19520/24:A0000474 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.15240/tul/001/2024-3-007" target="_blank" >10.15240/tul/001/2024-3-007</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Assessing the impact of exchange rates on international trade in the manufacturing sector of CEE countries: A specific focus on SMEs

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

This paper aims to analyze the impact of exchange rates on international trade in the manufacturing sector in selected Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. To accomplish this, a distinctive combination of econometric techniques is employed, enabling an assessment of both macro- and micro-level perspectives concerning the mutual relationship between foreign exchange rates and international trade. At the macroeconomic level, the examination employs the J-curve methodology, utilizing Johansen cointegration and vector error correction models to assess the influence of currency exchange rate dynamics on international trade within the manufacturing industry in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, and Romania. At the micro level, the generalized method of moments is applied to company data from the manufacturing industry in each respective country. The research period encompasses data spanning from 2011 to 2021. The research findings highlight a significant disjunction between macroeconomic and microeconomic perspectives on the impact of exchange rates within the manufacturing industry. While macroeconomic analysis indicates a general trend towards expected outcomes, such as increased exports and improved trade balance following domestic currency depreciation, miecroeconomic regression analysis reveals a more nuanced picture. Contrary to macroeconomic assumptions, the microeconomic perspective, particularly in the case of Romania and Hungary, suggests that exchange rate effects may have opposite impacts on return on assets (ROA) in the manufacturing sector in tested small- and medium-sized companies. This discrepancy underscores the complexity of exchange rate dynamics and emphasizes the need for nuanced, context-specific analyses when assessing the influence of exchange rate fluctuations on international trade and financial performance.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Assessing the impact of exchange rates on international trade in the manufacturing sector of CEE countries: A specific focus on SMEs

Popis výsledku anglicky

This paper aims to analyze the impact of exchange rates on international trade in the manufacturing sector in selected Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. To accomplish this, a distinctive combination of econometric techniques is employed, enabling an assessment of both macro- and micro-level perspectives concerning the mutual relationship between foreign exchange rates and international trade. At the macroeconomic level, the examination employs the J-curve methodology, utilizing Johansen cointegration and vector error correction models to assess the influence of currency exchange rate dynamics on international trade within the manufacturing industry in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, and Romania. At the micro level, the generalized method of moments is applied to company data from the manufacturing industry in each respective country. The research period encompasses data spanning from 2011 to 2021. The research findings highlight a significant disjunction between macroeconomic and microeconomic perspectives on the impact of exchange rates within the manufacturing industry. While macroeconomic analysis indicates a general trend towards expected outcomes, such as increased exports and improved trade balance following domestic currency depreciation, miecroeconomic regression analysis reveals a more nuanced picture. Contrary to macroeconomic assumptions, the microeconomic perspective, particularly in the case of Romania and Hungary, suggests that exchange rate effects may have opposite impacts on return on assets (ROA) in the manufacturing sector in tested small- and medium-sized companies. This discrepancy underscores the complexity of exchange rate dynamics and emphasizes the need for nuanced, context-specific analyses when assessing the influence of exchange rate fluctuations on international trade and financial performance.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

50204 - Business and management

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

E+M EKONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT

ISSN

1212-3609

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

27

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

3

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

16

Strana od-do

104-119

Kód UT WoS článku

001312806500007

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

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