Foresight in a state of war and geopolitical tensions: Scenario-building methodology

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F48546054%3A_____%2F24%3AN0000058" target="_blank" >RIV/48546054:_____/24:N0000058 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://re-engaging.eu/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/D5.2-Scenario_Methodology_fin.pdf" target="_blank" >https://re-engaging.eu/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/D5.2-Scenario_Methodology_fin.pdf</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Foresight in a state of war and geopolitical tensions: Scenario-building methodology

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

This paper presents the conceptual background and methodological approach designed for the re-ENGAGE foresight exercise and scenario development process. The foresight and scenarios designed focus specifically on the involvement of key external actors (Russia, China, Türkiye and the United States) in Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans in the mid-term future. The paper first overviews some of the conceptual debates in the foresight and scenario analysis. It reviews the state of foresight and future analysis in the EU institutions with a specific focus on the existing scenario analyses of the two studied regions. The second part of the paper then provides a conceptual and methodological framework for scenario development. It highlights the normative underpinning of the re-ENGAGE approach to foresight and provides a three-step methodological approach for scenario analysis, consisting of horizon scanning, scenario narrative construction and probing of the response strategies. Deliverable D5.2 Project Horizon 101132314 RE-ENAGE: Re-Engaging with Neighbours in a State of War and Geopolitical Tension

Název v anglickém jazyce

Foresight in a state of war and geopolitical tensions: Scenario-building methodology

Popis výsledku anglicky

This paper presents the conceptual background and methodological approach designed for the re-ENGAGE foresight exercise and scenario development process. The foresight and scenarios designed focus specifically on the involvement of key external actors (Russia, China, Türkiye and the United States) in Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans in the mid-term future. The paper first overviews some of the conceptual debates in the foresight and scenario analysis. It reviews the state of foresight and future analysis in the EU institutions with a specific focus on the existing scenario analyses of the two studied regions. The second part of the paper then provides a conceptual and methodological framework for scenario development. It highlights the normative underpinning of the re-ENGAGE approach to foresight and provides a three-step methodological approach for scenario analysis, consisting of horizon scanning, scenario narrative construction and probing of the response strategies. Deliverable D5.2 Project Horizon 101132314 RE-ENAGE: Re-Engaging with Neighbours in a State of War and Geopolitical Tension

Druh

O - Ostatní výsledky

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

50601 - Political science

Projekt

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Návaznosti

R - Projekt Ramcoveho programu EK

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů