Fractured, Integrated, at War? Five Scenarios for the Geopolitical Futures of Western Balkans in 2035

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F48546054%3A_____%2F25%3AN0000041" target="_blank" >RIV/48546054:_____/25:N0000041 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://re-engaging.eu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/D5.3_-Strategic-forecast_Final.pdf" target="_blank" >https://re-engaging.eu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/D5.3_-Strategic-forecast_Final.pdf</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

—

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Fractured, Integrated, at War? Five Scenarios for the Geopolitical Futures of Western Balkans in 2035

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

This report presents five exploratory scenarios examining geopolitical developments in the Western Balkans over the next decade, with a particular emphasis on the evolving roles of external actors. Drawing on a collaborative research process and insights from the Horizon No. 101132314 Re-Engaging with Neighbours in a State of War and Geopolitical Tensions (RE-ENGAGE) project, the analysis maps interactions between regional regimes, the EU, and major external stakeholders. The scenarios are designed not to predict outcomes but to illuminate possible trajectories and enrich foreign policy discourse. The five scenarios explore: (1) US withdrawal from regional affairs, (2) increased Russian hostility and belligerence, (3) simultaneous Chinese and Russian disengagement, (4) global authoritarian triumph, and (5) renewed democratization drive. The conclusion of the paper then discusses the lessons the EU should draw from these scenarios.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Fractured, Integrated, at War? Five Scenarios for the Geopolitical Futures of Western Balkans in 2035

Popis výsledku anglicky

This report presents five exploratory scenarios examining geopolitical developments in the Western Balkans over the next decade, with a particular emphasis on the evolving roles of external actors. Drawing on a collaborative research process and insights from the Horizon No. 101132314 Re-Engaging with Neighbours in a State of War and Geopolitical Tensions (RE-ENGAGE) project, the analysis maps interactions between regional regimes, the EU, and major external stakeholders. The scenarios are designed not to predict outcomes but to illuminate possible trajectories and enrich foreign policy discourse. The five scenarios explore: (1) US withdrawal from regional affairs, (2) increased Russian hostility and belligerence, (3) simultaneous Chinese and Russian disengagement, (4) global authoritarian triumph, and (5) renewed democratization drive. The conclusion of the paper then discusses the lessons the EU should draw from these scenarios.

Druh

V_souhrn - Souhrnná výzkumná zpráva

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50601 - Political science

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

R - Projekt Ramcoveho programu EK

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Počet stran výsledku

36

Místo vydání

neuveden

Název nakladatele resp. objednatele

European Commission

Verze

—