STOCHASTIC MODEL OF SHORT-TIME PRICE DEVELOPMENT OF SHARES AND ITS PROFITABILITY IN ALGORITHMIC TRADING

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

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Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

STOCHASTIC MODEL OF SHORT-TIME PRICE DEVELOPMENT OF SHARES AND ITS PROFITABILITY IN ALGORITHMIC TRADING

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The aim of this study is to verify the profitability of speculative algorithmic trading systems. The study was performed on historical daily prices (open and close) of the CEZ shares in a ten years period from the beginning of 2006 to the end of 2015. The profitability of algorithmic trading systems is compared to the passive 'Buy and Hold' strategy. In the study we present three trading systems, the basic one and two its modifications. The systems use business strategies based on assumptions of Technical Analysis (TA). TA assumes that stock prices move in three types of trends: primary, secondary and minor. The subject of our interest is the minor trend which usually lasts for several days. During the duration of this trend the share price accumulates a gain or loss in relation to the price at the beginning of the trend. We further assume that the probability of reversing this trend increases with accumulated loss or gain. For modelling the probability of trend reversal, we use the theory of Markov chains. States in which there is a high probability of a change in the trend are suitable for generating trading orders. The results of this study show that algorithmic trading systems employing this strategy are able to outperform the market.

Název v anglickém jazyce

STOCHASTIC MODEL OF SHORT-TIME PRICE DEVELOPMENT OF SHARES AND ITS PROFITABILITY IN ALGORITHMIC TRADING

Popis výsledku anglicky

The aim of this study is to verify the profitability of speculative algorithmic trading systems. The study was performed on historical daily prices (open and close) of the CEZ shares in a ten years period from the beginning of 2006 to the end of 2015. The profitability of algorithmic trading systems is compared to the passive 'Buy and Hold' strategy. In the study we present three trading systems, the basic one and two its modifications. The systems use business strategies based on assumptions of Technical Analysis (TA). TA assumes that stock prices move in three types of trends: primary, secondary and minor. The subject of our interest is the minor trend which usually lasts for several days. During the duration of this trend the share price accumulates a gain or loss in relation to the price at the beginning of the trend. We further assume that the probability of reversing this trend increases with accumulated loss or gain. For modelling the probability of trend reversal, we use the theory of Markov chains. States in which there is a high probability of a change in the trend are suitable for generating trading orders. The results of this study show that algorithmic trading systems employing this strategy are able to outperform the market.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

IN - Informatika

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

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Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2016

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

Quantitative Methods in Economics / Multiple Criteria Decision Making XVIII

ISBN

978-80-972328-0-1

ISSN

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e-ISSN

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Počet stran výsledku

7

Strana od-do

362-368

Název nakladatele

Letra Interactive, s.r.o.

Místo vydání

Bratislava

Místo konání akce

Vrátna, Slovakia

Datum konání akce

25. 5. 2016

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

EUR - Evropská akce

Kód UT WoS článku

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