Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60076658%3A12310%2F18%3A43897307" target="_blank" >RIV/60076658:12310/18:43897307 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/60077344:_____/18:00488010 RIV/60076658:12510/18:43897307

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S0048969717334800?token=5A62C6F1BF0EAD06A4739019A8F83BB08D5F494CCEAC2AC96EE36922A08D3E764802E51FEE17545117FB87E85EC9ED93" target="_blank" >https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S0048969717334800?token=5A62C6F1BF0EAD06A4739019A8F83BB08D5F494CCEAC2AC96EE36922A08D3E764802E51FEE17545117FB87E85EC9ED93</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.061" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.061</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Rimov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can provide a solid basis for a better understanding of processes in freshwater reservoirs.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir

Popis výsledku anglicky

Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Rimov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can provide a solid basis for a better understanding of processes in freshwater reservoirs.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10511 - Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7)

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/LM2015075" target="_blank" >LM2015075: Národní infrastruktura pro komplexní monitorování půdních a vodních ekosystémů v kontextu trvale udržitelného využívání krajiny</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)<br>I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2018

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Science of the Total Environment

ISSN

0048-9697

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

624

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

MAY 15 2018

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

10

Strana od-do

24-33

Kód UT WoS článku

000426355900004

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85037674646