Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir
Identifikátory výsledku
Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60077344%3A_____%2F18%3A00488010" target="_blank" >RIV/60077344:_____/18:00488010 - isvavai.cz</a>
Nalezeny alternativní kódy
RIV/60076658:12310/18:43897307 RIV/60076658:12510/18:43897307
Výsledek na webu
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.061" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.061</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.061" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.061</a>
Alternativní jazyky
Jazyk výsledku
angličtina
Název v původním jazyce
Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir
Popis výsledku v původním jazyce
Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can provide a solid basis for a better understanding of processes in freshwater reservoirs.
Název v anglickém jazyce
Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir
Popis výsledku anglicky
Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can provide a solid basis for a better understanding of processes in freshwater reservoirs.
Klasifikace
Druh
J<sub>imp</sub> - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science
CEP obor
—
OECD FORD obor
10617 - Marine biology, freshwater biology, limnology
Návaznosti výsledku
Projekt
Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.
Návaznosti
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)
Ostatní
Rok uplatnění
2018
Kód důvěrnosti údajů
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Údaje specifické pro druh výsledku
Název periodika
Science of the Total Environment
ISSN
0048-9697
e-ISSN
—
Svazek periodika
624
Číslo periodika v rámci svazku
May
Stát vydavatele periodika
NL - Nizozemsko
Počet stran výsledku
10
Strana od-do
24-33
Kód UT WoS článku
000426355900004
EID výsledku v databázi Scopus
2-s2.0-85037674646