Quantifying uncertainty in estimation of global arthropod species richness
Identifikátory výsledku
Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60077344%3A_____%2F10%3A00350962" target="_blank" >RIV/60077344:_____/10:00350962 - isvavai.cz</a>
Výsledek na webu
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DOI - Digital Object Identifier
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Alternativní jazyky
Jazyk výsledku
angličtina
Název v původním jazyce
Quantifying uncertainty in estimation of global arthropod species richness
Popis výsledku v původním jazyce
There is a bewildering range of estimates for the number of arthropods on Earth. Several measures are based on extrapolation from species specialized to tropical rain forest, each using specific assumptions and justifications. These approaches have not provided any sound measure of uncertainty associated with richness estimates. We present two models that account for parameter uncertainty by replacing point estimates with probability distributions. The models predict medians of 3.7 million and 2.5 million tropical arthropod species globally, with 90% confidence intervals of [2.0, 7.4] million and [1.1, 5.4] million, respectively. Estimates of 30 million or greater are predicted to have <0.00001 probability. Sensitivity analyses identified uncertainty in the proportion of canopy arthropod species that are beetles as the most influential parameter, although uncertainties associated with three other parameters were also important.
Název v anglickém jazyce
Quantifying uncertainty in estimation of global arthropod species richness
Popis výsledku anglicky
There is a bewildering range of estimates for the number of arthropods on Earth. Several measures are based on extrapolation from species specialized to tropical rain forest, each using specific assumptions and justifications. These approaches have not provided any sound measure of uncertainty associated with richness estimates. We present two models that account for parameter uncertainty by replacing point estimates with probability distributions. The models predict medians of 3.7 million and 2.5 million tropical arthropod species globally, with 90% confidence intervals of [2.0, 7.4] million and [1.1, 5.4] million, respectively. Estimates of 30 million or greater are predicted to have <0.00001 probability. Sensitivity analyses identified uncertainty in the proportion of canopy arthropod species that are beetles as the most influential parameter, although uncertainties associated with three other parameters were also important.
Klasifikace
Druh
J<sub>x</sub> - Nezařazeno - Článek v odborném periodiku (Jimp, Jsc a Jost)
CEP obor
EH - Ekologie – společenstva
OECD FORD obor
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Návaznosti výsledku
Projekt
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Návaznosti
Z - Vyzkumny zamer (s odkazem do CEZ)
Ostatní
Rok uplatnění
2010
Kód důvěrnosti údajů
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Údaje specifické pro druh výsledku
Název periodika
American Naturalist
ISSN
0003-0147
e-ISSN
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Svazek periodika
176
Číslo periodika v rámci svazku
1
Stát vydavatele periodika
US - Spojené státy americké
Počet stran výsledku
6
Strana od-do
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Kód UT WoS článku
000278375200012
EID výsledku v databázi Scopus
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