Estimating the Potential of Insects from Warmer Regions to Overwinter in Colder Regions under a Warming Winter Scenario Using Simulation Experiments: A Case Study in Sesamia nonagrioides

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60077344%3A_____%2F23%3A00579610" target="_blank" >RIV/60077344:_____/23:00579610 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4450/14/12/957/pdf?version=1702800670" target="_blank" >https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4450/14/12/957/pdf?version=1702800670</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/insects14120957" target="_blank" >10.3390/insects14120957</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Estimating the Potential of Insects from Warmer Regions to Overwinter in Colder Regions under a Warming Winter Scenario Using Simulation Experiments: A Case Study in Sesamia nonagrioides

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Ongoing climate change and anthropogenic pressure are having a profound influence on insects, causing species diversity to decline and populations to shrink. Insect pests invade new areas and cause economic and human health problems. Low temperatures in winter are thought to be one of the main barriers to the successful colonization of higher latitudes. Climate models predict that winter temperatures will increase more than summer temperatures in temperate and polar regions, potentially allowing species from warmer climates to colonize higher latitudes. Understanding how climate change will affect the distribution of insects is critical to many areas of human activity. One possible but seldom used way to predict likely range shifts of insects due to climate change is through simulation experiments. Here, I present and test a method to assess the potential of insect species from warmer regions to survive winters in colder regions under a warming winter scenario. The method is based on laboratory simulations of warming winters. The applicability of the method is demonstrated using the example of a Mediterranean pest, Sesamia nonagrioides, whose ability to survive Central European winters under a warming winter scenario is assessed. The method presented here is relatively simple, with potentially high accuracy of estimates.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Estimating the Potential of Insects from Warmer Regions to Overwinter in Colder Regions under a Warming Winter Scenario Using Simulation Experiments: A Case Study in Sesamia nonagrioides

Popis výsledku anglicky

Ongoing climate change and anthropogenic pressure are having a profound influence on insects, causing species diversity to decline and populations to shrink. Insect pests invade new areas and cause economic and human health problems. Low temperatures in winter are thought to be one of the main barriers to the successful colonization of higher latitudes. Climate models predict that winter temperatures will increase more than summer temperatures in temperate and polar regions, potentially allowing species from warmer climates to colonize higher latitudes. Understanding how climate change will affect the distribution of insects is critical to many areas of human activity. One possible but seldom used way to predict likely range shifts of insects due to climate change is through simulation experiments. Here, I present and test a method to assess the potential of insect species from warmer regions to survive winters in colder regions under a warming winter scenario. The method is based on laboratory simulations of warming winters. The applicability of the method is demonstrated using the example of a Mediterranean pest, Sesamia nonagrioides, whose ability to survive Central European winters under a warming winter scenario is assessed. The method presented here is relatively simple, with potentially high accuracy of estimates.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10618 - Ecology

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Insects

ISSN

2075-4450

e-ISSN

2075-4450

Svazek periodika

14

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

12

Stát vydavatele periodika

CH - Švýcarská konfederace

Počet stran výsledku

10

Strana od-do

957

Kód UT WoS článku

001132039100001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85180435577