Chronic hepatitis C in the Czech Republic: Forecasting the disease burden

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60162694%3AG44__%2F19%3A00537456" target="_blank" >RIV/60162694:G44__/19:00537456 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/00216224:14110/19:00110345 RIV/00216208:11110/19:10399914 RIV/65269705:_____/19:00070947 RIV/00023001:_____/19:00078047 RIV/75010330:_____/19:00012615

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://cejph.szu.cz/artkey/cjp-201902-0002_chronic-hepatitis-c-in-the-czech-republic-forecasting-the-disease-burden.php" target="_blank" >https://cejph.szu.cz/artkey/cjp-201902-0002_chronic-hepatitis-c-in-the-czech-republic-forecasting-the-disease-burden.php</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.21101/cejph.a5350" target="_blank" >10.21101/cejph.a5350</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Chronic hepatitis C in the Czech Republic: Forecasting the disease burden

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Objective: Chronic HCV infection is associated with cirrhosis of the liver, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver transplantation. HCV disease burden and the impact of new potent direct acting antivirals (DAAs) in the Czech Republic are unknown. Methods: Using a modelling framework, HCV disease progression in the Czech Republic was predicted to 2030 under the current standard of care treatment structure. In addition, two strategies to reduce the future burden of HCV infection were modelled: an incremental increase in treatment annually and WHO targets. Results: The number of viremic infected individuals in the Czech Republic is estimated to peak in 2026 (n = 55,130) and to decline by 0.5% by 2030 (n = 54,840). The number of individuals with compensated cirrhosis (n = 1,400), decompensated cirrhosis (n = 80), HCC (n = 70), and liver related deaths (n = 60) is estimated to more than double by 2030. Through aggressive increases in diagnosis and treatment, HCV related mortality may decrease by 70% by 2030. Conclusions: Disease burden associated with chronic HCV infection is projected to peak in the Czech Republic in 30-40 years. Assuming that the current portion of DAAs used remains constant, a significant reduction in HCV disease burden is possible through increased diagnosis and treatment through 2030. This analysis provides evidence in order to facilitate the development of national strategies for HCV care and management in the Czech Republic.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Chronic hepatitis C in the Czech Republic: Forecasting the disease burden

Popis výsledku anglicky

Objective: Chronic HCV infection is associated with cirrhosis of the liver, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver transplantation. HCV disease burden and the impact of new potent direct acting antivirals (DAAs) in the Czech Republic are unknown. Methods: Using a modelling framework, HCV disease progression in the Czech Republic was predicted to 2030 under the current standard of care treatment structure. In addition, two strategies to reduce the future burden of HCV infection were modelled: an incremental increase in treatment annually and WHO targets. Results: The number of viremic infected individuals in the Czech Republic is estimated to peak in 2026 (n = 55,130) and to decline by 0.5% by 2030 (n = 54,840). The number of individuals with compensated cirrhosis (n = 1,400), decompensated cirrhosis (n = 80), HCC (n = 70), and liver related deaths (n = 60) is estimated to more than double by 2030. Through aggressive increases in diagnosis and treatment, HCV related mortality may decrease by 70% by 2030. Conclusions: Disease burden associated with chronic HCV infection is projected to peak in the Czech Republic in 30-40 years. Assuming that the current portion of DAAs used remains constant, a significant reduction in HCV disease burden is possible through increased diagnosis and treatment through 2030. This analysis provides evidence in order to facilitate the development of national strategies for HCV care and management in the Czech Republic.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

30304 - Public and environmental health

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2019

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Central European Journal of Public Health

ISSN

1210-7778

e-ISSN

1803-1048

Svazek periodika

27

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

2

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

16

Strana od-do

93-98

Kód UT WoS článku

000472898100002

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85068819516