Agricultural land fund in motion

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41110%2F17%3AN0000075" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41110/17:N0000075 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Agricultural land fund in motion

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The aim of the paper is construction of the model for development prediction of the extent and structure of agricultural land fund in the CR. Using the advanced statistical methods from the time series analysis adaptive approaches domain, long-term tendencies of farmland fund structure development have been described over the 1999-2015 years, as considered in the context of historical data from 1920-2015, and future development forecasts have been constructed. Two exponential smoothing methods have been applied in the forecasts for non-seasonal time series with local linear trend (the Holt method) and the double exponential smoothing (the Brown method). The solution starts from identification and analysis of relevant factors causing reduction of area and degradation of farmland, especially the loss of arable land. Primarily these are: area development, changes in the forest land area, water and wind erosion, soil compaction, acidification, dehumification and soil contamination. In most cases the degradation process causes a chain reaction and the degradation factors follow each other. Considering the 80% self-sufficiency in the basic foodstuffs production it is necessary to preserve the soil production capabilities not only by its protection but by the economically tolerable structure, too. Position of the Czech Republic as concerns the farmland fund development has been compared with selected EU Countries regarding the farmland fund structure and the per capita arable land area.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Agricultural land fund in motion

Popis výsledku anglicky

The aim of the paper is construction of the model for development prediction of the extent and structure of agricultural land fund in the CR. Using the advanced statistical methods from the time series analysis adaptive approaches domain, long-term tendencies of farmland fund structure development have been described over the 1999-2015 years, as considered in the context of historical data from 1920-2015, and future development forecasts have been constructed. Two exponential smoothing methods have been applied in the forecasts for non-seasonal time series with local linear trend (the Holt method) and the double exponential smoothing (the Brown method). The solution starts from identification and analysis of relevant factors causing reduction of area and degradation of farmland, especially the loss of arable land. Primarily these are: area development, changes in the forest land area, water and wind erosion, soil compaction, acidification, dehumification and soil contamination. In most cases the degradation process causes a chain reaction and the degradation factors follow each other. Considering the 80% self-sufficiency in the basic foodstuffs production it is necessary to preserve the soil production capabilities not only by its protection but by the economically tolerable structure, too. Position of the Czech Republic as concerns the farmland fund development has been compared with selected EU Countries regarding the farmland fund structure and the per capita arable land area.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

10103 - Statistics and probability

Projekt

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Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2017

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

Agrarian perspectives XXVI. - Competitiveness of European agriculture and food sectors

ISBN

978-80-213-2787-0

ISSN

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e-ISSN

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Počet stran výsledku

7

Strana od-do

299-305

Název nakladatele

Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague

Místo vydání

Czech University of Life Sciences Prague

Místo konání akce

Prague, Czech Republic

Datum konání akce

13. 9. 2017

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

WRD - Celosvětová akce

Kód UT WoS článku

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