The Russia-Ukraine war decreases food affordability but could reduce global greenhouse gas emissions

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41110%2F24%3A98542" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41110/24:98542 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01208-x" target="_blank" >https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01208-x</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01208-x" target="_blank" >10.1038/s43247-024-01208-x</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

The Russia-Ukraine war decreases food affordability but could reduce global greenhouse gas emissions

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has the potential to exacerbate food insecurity around the world, as both countries are major exporters of grains and other agricultural products. In this model-based scenario study, medium-term effects of the war are quantified on agricultural production, trade flows, market prices, food security, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions. The scenarios assess the possible consequences of macro-economic and agricultural production impacts in Ukraine, trade sanctions against Russia, and conflict-related energy price developments for global trade, food security, and greenhouse gas emissions. From a food security perspective, we conclude that there is enough food on the global level, but higher food and energy prices cause problems for low-income populations, spending a large part of their income on staple foods. Agricultural production and area expansion in parts of the world other than Ukraine and Russia could pose a risk to biodiversity and lead to higher greenhouse gas emissions related to land. However, total greenhouse gas emissions might decrease as lower emissions from less use of fossil energy due to higher energy and fertilizer prices in the whole economy dominate additional emissions resulting from land use change.

Název v anglickém jazyce

The Russia-Ukraine war decreases food affordability but could reduce global greenhouse gas emissions

Popis výsledku anglicky

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has the potential to exacerbate food insecurity around the world, as both countries are major exporters of grains and other agricultural products. In this model-based scenario study, medium-term effects of the war are quantified on agricultural production, trade flows, market prices, food security, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions. The scenarios assess the possible consequences of macro-economic and agricultural production impacts in Ukraine, trade sanctions against Russia, and conflict-related energy price developments for global trade, food security, and greenhouse gas emissions. From a food security perspective, we conclude that there is enough food on the global level, but higher food and energy prices cause problems for low-income populations, spending a large part of their income on staple foods. Agricultural production and area expansion in parts of the world other than Ukraine and Russia could pose a risk to biodiversity and lead to higher greenhouse gas emissions related to land. However, total greenhouse gas emissions might decrease as lower emissions from less use of fossil energy due to higher energy and fertilizer prices in the whole economy dominate additional emissions resulting from land use change.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50704 - Environmental sciences (social aspects)

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Communications Earth & Environment

ISSN

2662-4435

e-ISSN

2662-4435

Svazek periodika

5

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

59

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

12

Strana od-do

1-12

Kód UT WoS článku

001154817100002

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85183617650