Is European current climate regulation strategy feasible? A comparative analysis of “Fit for 55” green transition package for V4 and LEU4

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41110%2F25%3A101873" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41110/25:101873 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X25002068" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X25002068</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2025.101843" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.esr.2025.101843</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Is European current climate regulation strategy feasible? A comparative analysis of “Fit for 55” green transition package for V4 and LEU4

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The European Union (EU) has committed to an ambitious climate strategy applying the “Fit for 55” package aimed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 55 % by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. However, the feasibility of these targets varies across Member States due to the differences in economic structures, energy mixes, and policy frameworks. This study evaluates the prospects of achieving “Fit for 55” goals for the Visegrad Group (V4) countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia) compared to the four largest EU economies (LEU4) (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain). We employ time-series forecasting using the ARIMA model, supplemented by a comparative assessment of energy policies and past trends in GHG emissions, renewable energy shares, and energy consumption. The results indicate substantial disparities between the two groups. While some V4 countries are on track to meet specific targets, others face challenges related to their reliance on fossil fuels. Equally, despite more advanced renewable energy adoption, LEU4 economies encounter difficulties in scaling up their decarbonization efforts and achieving energy efficiency improvements. Our findings highlight the need for differentiated policy approaches, considering national energy transitions and external geopolitical factors. The study underscores the role of targeted EU support mechanisms, such as the Just Transition Mechanism and Horizon Europe, in addressing these challenges and facilitating the green transition.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Is European current climate regulation strategy feasible? A comparative analysis of “Fit for 55” green transition package for V4 and LEU4

Popis výsledku anglicky

The European Union (EU) has committed to an ambitious climate strategy applying the “Fit for 55” package aimed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 55 % by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. However, the feasibility of these targets varies across Member States due to the differences in economic structures, energy mixes, and policy frameworks. This study evaluates the prospects of achieving “Fit for 55” goals for the Visegrad Group (V4) countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia) compared to the four largest EU economies (LEU4) (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain). We employ time-series forecasting using the ARIMA model, supplemented by a comparative assessment of energy policies and past trends in GHG emissions, renewable energy shares, and energy consumption. The results indicate substantial disparities between the two groups. While some V4 countries are on track to meet specific targets, others face challenges related to their reliance on fossil fuels. Equally, despite more advanced renewable energy adoption, LEU4 economies encounter difficulties in scaling up their decarbonization efforts and achieving energy efficiency improvements. Our findings highlight the need for differentiated policy approaches, considering national energy transitions and external geopolitical factors. The study underscores the role of targeted EU support mechanisms, such as the Just Transition Mechanism and Horizon Europe, in addressing these challenges and facilitating the green transition.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50201 - Economic Theory

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Energy Strategy Reviews

ISSN

2211-467X

e-ISSN

2211-467X

Svazek periodika

61

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

9

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

12

Strana od-do

1-12

Kód UT WoS článku

001560833700001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-105013737961