Climate-driven Mediterranean fire hazard assessments for 2020-2100 on the light of past millennial variability

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41320%2F22%3A92919" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41320/22:92919 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03258-y" target="_blank" >https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03258-y</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03258-y" target="_blank" >10.1007/s10584-021-03258-y</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Climate-driven Mediterranean fire hazard assessments for 2020-2100 on the light of past millennial variability

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

In the Mediterranean basin, Corsica (French island) harbours among the best-preserved Mediterranean forest ecosystems. However, its high biodiversity could be threatened by the climate and disturbance-regime changes due to the global warming. This study aims (i) to estimate the future climate-related fire hazard in Corsica for the current century (2020-2100) based on two RCP scenarios (RCP4,5 and RCP8,5) and (ii) to compare the predicted trends with the entire Holocene period for which fire hazard has previously been assessed. An ensemble of future climate simulations from two IPCC RCP scenarios has been used to compute the Monthly Drought Code (MDC) and the Fire Season Length (FSL) and to assess the level of fire hazard. Here, we show that the MDC and the FSL would both strongly increase over the next decades due to the combined effect of temperature increase and precipitation decrease in the Corsica region. Moreover, the maximum Holocene FLS (7000 to 9000 years ago) will be reached (and even exceed

Název v anglickém jazyce

Climate-driven Mediterranean fire hazard assessments for 2020-2100 on the light of past millennial variability

Popis výsledku anglicky

In the Mediterranean basin, Corsica (French island) harbours among the best-preserved Mediterranean forest ecosystems. However, its high biodiversity could be threatened by the climate and disturbance-regime changes due to the global warming. This study aims (i) to estimate the future climate-related fire hazard in Corsica for the current century (2020-2100) based on two RCP scenarios (RCP4,5 and RCP8,5) and (ii) to compare the predicted trends with the entire Holocene period for which fire hazard has previously been assessed. An ensemble of future climate simulations from two IPCC RCP scenarios has been used to compute the Monthly Drought Code (MDC) and the Fire Season Length (FSL) and to assess the level of fire hazard. Here, we show that the MDC and the FSL would both strongly increase over the next decades due to the combined effect of temperature increase and precipitation decrease in the Corsica region. Moreover, the maximum Holocene FLS (7000 to 9000 years ago) will be reached (and even exceed

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10511 - Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7)

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2022

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

CLIMATIC CHANGE

ISSN

0165-0009

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

170

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1-2

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

18

Strana od-do

1-18

Kód UT WoS článku

000749219200001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85123485426