Possible Increase of Vegetation Exposure to Spring Frost under Climate Change in Switzerland

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F20%3A00523874" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/20:00523874 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/86652079:_____/20:00525569

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/4/391/htm" target="_blank" >https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/4/391/htm</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040391" target="_blank" >10.3390/atmos11040391</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Possible Increase of Vegetation Exposure to Spring Frost under Climate Change in Switzerland

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

We assessed future changes in spring frost risk for the Aare river catchment that comprises the Swiss Plateau, the most important agricultural region of Switzerland. An ensemble of 15 bias-corrected regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EXAR data set forced by the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 concentration pathways were analysed for two future periods. Correlating actual meteorological observations and Swiss phenological spring index, we proposed and tested an RCM-compatible methodology (based on temperature data only) for estimating a start of spring and severity of frost events. In the historical climate, a significant advancement in start of spring was observed and frost events were more frequent in those years in which spring started sooner. In 2021–2050, spring is projected to start eight (twelve) days earlier, considering the RCP 4.5 (8.5) scenario. Substantial changes were simulated for the 2070–2099 period under RCP 8.5, when the total severity of frost events was projected to be increased by a factor of 2.1 compared to the historical climate. The study revealed the possible future increase of vegetation exposure to spring frost in Switzerland and that this phenomenon is noticeable even in the near future under the ‘low concentration’ RCP 4.5 scenario.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Possible Increase of Vegetation Exposure to Spring Frost under Climate Change in Switzerland

Popis výsledku anglicky

We assessed future changes in spring frost risk for the Aare river catchment that comprises the Swiss Plateau, the most important agricultural region of Switzerland. An ensemble of 15 bias-corrected regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EXAR data set forced by the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 concentration pathways were analysed for two future periods. Correlating actual meteorological observations and Swiss phenological spring index, we proposed and tested an RCM-compatible methodology (based on temperature data only) for estimating a start of spring and severity of frost events. In the historical climate, a significant advancement in start of spring was observed and frost events were more frequent in those years in which spring started sooner. In 2021–2050, spring is projected to start eight (twelve) days earlier, considering the RCP 4.5 (8.5) scenario. Substantial changes were simulated for the 2070–2099 period under RCP 8.5, when the total severity of frost events was projected to be increased by a factor of 2.1 compared to the historical climate. The study revealed the possible future increase of vegetation exposure to spring frost in Switzerland and that this phenomenon is noticeable even in the near future under the ‘low concentration’ RCP 4.5 scenario.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Projekt

Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2020

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Atmosphere

ISSN

2073-4433

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

11

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

4

Stát vydavatele periodika

CH - Švýcarská konfederace

Počet stran výsledku

16

Strana od-do

391

Kód UT WoS článku

000539492200078

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85084532484