The ongoing range expansion of the invasive oak lace bug across Europe: current occurrence and potential distribution under climate change

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41320%2F24%3A101690" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41320/24:101690 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969724051003" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969724051003</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174950" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174950</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

The ongoing range expansion of the invasive oak lace bug across Europe: current occurrence and potential distribution under climate change

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

In recent years, the oak lace bug, Corythucha arcuata, , has emerged as a significant threat to European oak forests. This species, native to North America, has in the last two decades rapidly extended its range in Europe, raising concerns about its potential impact on the continent's invaluable oak populations. To address this growing concern, we conducted an extensive study to assess the distribution, colonization patterns, and potential ecological niche of the oak lace bug in Europe. We gathered 1792 unique presence coordinates from 21 Eurasian countries, utilizing diverse sources such as research observations, citizen science initiatives, GBIF database, and social media reports. To delineate the realized niche and future distribution, we employed an ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM) framework. Two future greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were considered across three-time intervals (2021-2040, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100) to project and evaluate the species' potential distribution in the future. Our analysis revealed that significant hotspots rich in host species occurrence for this invasive insect remain uninvaded so far, even within its suitable habitat. Furthermore, the native ranges of Turkey oak ( Quercus cerris L.) and Hungarian oak ( Quercus frainetto L.) species offer entirely suitable environments for the oak lace bug. In contrast, the pedunculate oak and sessile oak distribution ranges currently show only 40 % and 50 % suitability for colonization, respectively. However, our predictive models indicate a significant transformation in the habitat suitability of the oak lace bug, with suitability for these two oak species increasing by up to 90 %. This shift underlines an evolving landscape where the oak lace bug may exploit more of its available habitats than initially expected. It emphasises the pressing need for proactive measures to manage and stop its expanding presence, which may lead to a harmful impact on the oak population across the European landscape.

Název v anglickém jazyce

The ongoing range expansion of the invasive oak lace bug across Europe: current occurrence and potential distribution under climate change

Popis výsledku anglicky

In recent years, the oak lace bug, Corythucha arcuata, , has emerged as a significant threat to European oak forests. This species, native to North America, has in the last two decades rapidly extended its range in Europe, raising concerns about its potential impact on the continent's invaluable oak populations. To address this growing concern, we conducted an extensive study to assess the distribution, colonization patterns, and potential ecological niche of the oak lace bug in Europe. We gathered 1792 unique presence coordinates from 21 Eurasian countries, utilizing diverse sources such as research observations, citizen science initiatives, GBIF database, and social media reports. To delineate the realized niche and future distribution, we employed an ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM) framework. Two future greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were considered across three-time intervals (2021-2040, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100) to project and evaluate the species' potential distribution in the future. Our analysis revealed that significant hotspots rich in host species occurrence for this invasive insect remain uninvaded so far, even within its suitable habitat. Furthermore, the native ranges of Turkey oak ( Quercus cerris L.) and Hungarian oak ( Quercus frainetto L.) species offer entirely suitable environments for the oak lace bug. In contrast, the pedunculate oak and sessile oak distribution ranges currently show only 40 % and 50 % suitability for colonization, respectively. However, our predictive models indicate a significant transformation in the habitat suitability of the oak lace bug, with suitability for these two oak species increasing by up to 90 %. This shift underlines an evolving landscape where the oak lace bug may exploit more of its available habitats than initially expected. It emphasises the pressing need for proactive measures to manage and stop its expanding presence, which may lead to a harmful impact on the oak population across the European landscape.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

40102 - Forestry

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Science of the Total Environment

ISSN

0048-9697

e-ISSN

0048-9697

Svazek periodika

949

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

2024

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

12

Strana od-do

1-12

Kód UT WoS článku

001292805800001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85199954010