Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F18%3A76465" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/18:76465 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0138-5" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0138-5</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0138-5" target="_blank" >10.1038/s41558-018-0138-5</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Anthropogenic warming is anticipated to increase soil moisture drought in the future. However, projections are accompanied by large uncertainty due to varying estimates of future warming. Here, using an ensemble of hydrological and land surface models, forced with bias corrected downscaled general circulation model output, we estimate the impacts from 1K to 3K global mean temperature increases on soil moisture droughts in Europe. Compared to the 1,5K Paris target, an increase of 3K, which represents current projected temperature change, is found to increase drought area by 40percent (plus minus 24 percent), affecting up to 42percent (plus minus 22percent) more of the population. Furthermore, an event similar to the 2003 drought is shown to become twice as frequent, thus, due to their increased occurrence, events of this magnitude will no longer be classified as extreme. In the absence of effective mitigation, Europe will therefore face unprecedented increases in soil moisture drought, presenting new

Název v anglickém jazyce

Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts

Popis výsledku anglicky

Anthropogenic warming is anticipated to increase soil moisture drought in the future. However, projections are accompanied by large uncertainty due to varying estimates of future warming. Here, using an ensemble of hydrological and land surface models, forced with bias corrected downscaled general circulation model output, we estimate the impacts from 1K to 3K global mean temperature increases on soil moisture droughts in Europe. Compared to the 1,5K Paris target, an increase of 3K, which represents current projected temperature change, is found to increase drought area by 40percent (plus minus 24 percent), affecting up to 42percent (plus minus 22percent) more of the population. Furthermore, an event similar to the 2003 drought is shown to become twice as frequent, thus, due to their increased occurrence, events of this magnitude will no longer be classified as extreme. In the absence of effective mitigation, Europe will therefore face unprecedented increases in soil moisture drought, presenting new

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10501 - Hydrology

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2018

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Nature Climate Change

ISSN

1758-678x

e-ISSN

1758-678X

Svazek periodika

8

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

5

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

6

Strana od-do

421-426

Kód UT WoS článku

000431139900026

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85045837734