Direct and lagged climate change effects intensified the 2022 European drought

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F24%3A98650" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/24:98650 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01559-2" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01559-2</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01559-2" target="_blank" >10.1038/s41561-024-01559-2</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Direct and lagged climate change effects intensified the 2022 European drought

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

In 2022, Europe faced an extensive summer drought with severe socioeconomic consequences. Quantifying the influence of human-induced climate change on such an extreme event can help prepare for future droughts. Here, by combining observations and climate model outputs with hydrological and land-surface simulations, we show that Central and Southern Europe experienced the highest observed total water storage deficit since satellite observations began in 2002, probably representing the highest and most widespread soil moisture deficit in the past six decades. While precipitation deficits primarily drove the soil moisture drought, human-induced global warming contributed to over 30% of the drought intensity and its spatial extent via enhanced evaporation. We identify that 14–41% of the climate change contribution was mediated by the warming-driven drying of the soil that occurred before the hydrological year of 2022, indicating the importance of considering lagged climate change effects to avoid underestimating associated risks. Human-induced climate change had qualitatively similar effects on the extremely low observed river discharges. These results highlight that global warming effects on droughts are already underway, widespread and long lasting, and that drought risk may escalate with further human-induced warming in the future.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Direct and lagged climate change effects intensified the 2022 European drought

Popis výsledku anglicky

In 2022, Europe faced an extensive summer drought with severe socioeconomic consequences. Quantifying the influence of human-induced climate change on such an extreme event can help prepare for future droughts. Here, by combining observations and climate model outputs with hydrological and land-surface simulations, we show that Central and Southern Europe experienced the highest observed total water storage deficit since satellite observations began in 2002, probably representing the highest and most widespread soil moisture deficit in the past six decades. While precipitation deficits primarily drove the soil moisture drought, human-induced global warming contributed to over 30% of the drought intensity and its spatial extent via enhanced evaporation. We identify that 14–41% of the climate change contribution was mediated by the warming-driven drying of the soil that occurred before the hydrological year of 2022, indicating the importance of considering lagged climate change effects to avoid underestimating associated risks. Human-induced climate change had qualitatively similar effects on the extremely low observed river discharges. These results highlight that global warming effects on droughts are already underway, widespread and long lasting, and that drought risk may escalate with further human-induced warming in the future.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10501 - Hydrology

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA23-08056S" target="_blank" >GA23-08056S: Sledování dynamiky vývoje suchých epizod a jejich klasifikace v globálním měřítku - DynamicDrought</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Nature Geoscience

ISSN

1752-0894

e-ISSN

1752-0894

Svazek periodika

17

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

22

Strana od-do

1-22

Kód UT WoS článku

001337257700001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85206991357