Abrupt events and population synchrony in the dynamics of Bovine Tuberculosis

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F18%3A76915" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/18:76915 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04915-0" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04915-0</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04915-0" target="_blank" >10.1038/s41467-018-04915-0</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Abrupt events and population synchrony in the dynamics of Bovine Tuberculosis

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Disease control strategies can have both intended and unintended effects on the dynamics of infectious diseases. Routine testing for the harmful pathogen Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) was suspended briefly during the foot and mouth disease epidemic of 2001 in Great Britain. Here we utilize bTB incidence data and mathematical models to demonstrate how a lapse in management can alter epidemiological parameters, including the rate of new infections and duration of infection cycles. Testing interruption shifted the dynamics from annual to 4-year cycles, and created long-lasting shifts in the spatial synchrony of new infections among regions of Great Britain. After annual testing was introduced in some GB regions, new infections have become more de-synchronised, a result also confirmed by a stochastic model. These results demonstrate that abrupt events can synchronise disease dynamics and that changes in the epidemiological parameters can lead to chaotic patterns, which are hard to be quantified, predicted, a

Název v anglickém jazyce

Abrupt events and population synchrony in the dynamics of Bovine Tuberculosis

Popis výsledku anglicky

Disease control strategies can have both intended and unintended effects on the dynamics of infectious diseases. Routine testing for the harmful pathogen Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) was suspended briefly during the foot and mouth disease epidemic of 2001 in Great Britain. Here we utilize bTB incidence data and mathematical models to demonstrate how a lapse in management can alter epidemiological parameters, including the rate of new infections and duration of infection cycles. Testing interruption shifted the dynamics from annual to 4-year cycles, and created long-lasting shifts in the spatial synchrony of new infections among regions of Great Britain. After annual testing was introduced in some GB regions, new infections have become more de-synchronised, a result also confirmed by a stochastic model. These results demonstrate that abrupt events can synchronise disease dynamics and that changes in the epidemiological parameters can lead to chaotic patterns, which are hard to be quantified, predicted, a

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

30302 - Epidemiology

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2018

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Nature Communications

ISSN

2041-1723

e-ISSN

2041-1723

Svazek periodika

9

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

2821

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

10

Strana od-do

1-10

Kód UT WoS článku

000439111800001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85050542398