Diverging trends in large floods across Europe in a warming climate

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F25%3A102083" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/25:102083 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02734-y" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02734-y</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02734-y" target="_blank" >10.1038/s43247-025-02734-y</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Diverging trends in large floods across Europe in a warming climate

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Large floods, which affect multiple regions simultaneously, pose substantial risks to lives and economies. In a warmer climate, increased precipitation extremes and reduced snowmelt are expected to alter flood characteristics, but how the dynamics of large floods across Europe will evolve under climate change remains unclear. By jointly assessing projected changes in the timing, spatial extent and volume of large floods in a warmer world, here we show that earlier snowmelt generally leads to earlier floods, while increasing precipitation contributions attenuate flood seasonality. Although continental-scale averages suggest limited change, they mask substantial regional heterogeneity. In western Europe, projected increases in heavy precipitation result in larger flood extents and volumes. In contrast, reduced snowmelt dominates changes in the largest floods in northern Europe, with localized shifts from snowmelt-driven to rainfall-driven floods. These regionally diverse responses of large floods to climate change should be considered in transnational flood risk management across Europe.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Diverging trends in large floods across Europe in a warming climate

Popis výsledku anglicky

Large floods, which affect multiple regions simultaneously, pose substantial risks to lives and economies. In a warmer climate, increased precipitation extremes and reduced snowmelt are expected to alter flood characteristics, but how the dynamics of large floods across Europe will evolve under climate change remains unclear. By jointly assessing projected changes in the timing, spatial extent and volume of large floods in a warmer world, here we show that earlier snowmelt generally leads to earlier floods, while increasing precipitation contributions attenuate flood seasonality. Although continental-scale averages suggest limited change, they mask substantial regional heterogeneity. In western Europe, projected increases in heavy precipitation result in larger flood extents and volumes. In contrast, reduced snowmelt dominates changes in the largest floods in northern Europe, with localized shifts from snowmelt-driven to rainfall-driven floods. These regionally diverse responses of large floods to climate change should be considered in transnational flood risk management across Europe.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10501 - Hydrology

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Communications Earth & Environment

ISSN

2662-4435

e-ISSN

2662-4435

Svazek periodika

6

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

AUG 29 2025

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

11

Strana od-do

1-11

Kód UT WoS článku

001560396900003

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-105014749669