Multi-Model Assessment of Groundwater Recharge Across Europe Under Warming Climate

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F25%3A102099" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/25:102099 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005020" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005020</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005020" target="_blank" >10.1029/2024EF005020</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Multi-Model Assessment of Groundwater Recharge Across Europe Under Warming Climate

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Climate change threatens the sustainable use of groundwater resources worldwide by affecting future recharge rates. However, assessments of global warming's impact on groundwater recharge at local scales are lacking. This study provides a continental-scale assessment of groundwater recharge changes in Europe, past, present, and future, at a (5x5) $(5times 5)$ km2 ${text{km}}<^>{2}$ resolution under different global warming levels (1.5, 2.0, and 3.0 K). Utilizing multi-model ensemble simulations from four hydrologic and land-surface models (HMs), our analysis incorporates E-OBS observational forcing data (1970-2015) and five bias-corrected and downscale climate model (GCMs) data sets covering the near-past to future climate conditions (1970-2100). Results reveal a north-south polarization in projected groundwater recharge change: declines over 25%-50% in the Mediterranean and increases over 25% in North Scandinavia at high warming levels (2.0-3.0 K). Central Europe shows minimal changes (+/- $pm $5%) with larger uncertainty at lower warming levels. The southeastern Balkan and Mediterranean region exhibited high sensitivity to warming, with changes nearly doubling between 1.5 and 3.0 K. We identify greater uncertainty from differences among GCMs, though significant uncertainties due to HMs exist in regions like the Mediterranean, Nordic, and Balkan areas. The findings highlight the importance of using multi-model ensembles to assess future groundwater recharge changes in Europe and emphasize the need to mitigate impacts in higher warming scenarios.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Multi-Model Assessment of Groundwater Recharge Across Europe Under Warming Climate

Popis výsledku anglicky

Climate change threatens the sustainable use of groundwater resources worldwide by affecting future recharge rates. However, assessments of global warming's impact on groundwater recharge at local scales are lacking. This study provides a continental-scale assessment of groundwater recharge changes in Europe, past, present, and future, at a (5x5) $(5times 5)$ km2 ${text{km}}<^>{2}$ resolution under different global warming levels (1.5, 2.0, and 3.0 K). Utilizing multi-model ensemble simulations from four hydrologic and land-surface models (HMs), our analysis incorporates E-OBS observational forcing data (1970-2015) and five bias-corrected and downscale climate model (GCMs) data sets covering the near-past to future climate conditions (1970-2100). Results reveal a north-south polarization in projected groundwater recharge change: declines over 25%-50% in the Mediterranean and increases over 25% in North Scandinavia at high warming levels (2.0-3.0 K). Central Europe shows minimal changes (+/- $pm $5%) with larger uncertainty at lower warming levels. The southeastern Balkan and Mediterranean region exhibited high sensitivity to warming, with changes nearly doubling between 1.5 and 3.0 K. We identify greater uncertainty from differences among GCMs, though significant uncertainties due to HMs exist in regions like the Mediterranean, Nordic, and Balkan areas. The findings highlight the importance of using multi-model ensembles to assess future groundwater recharge changes in Europe and emphasize the need to mitigate impacts in higher warming scenarios.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10501 - Hydrology

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Earths Future

ISSN

2328-4277

e-ISSN

2328-4277

Svazek periodika

13

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

JAN 2025

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

19

Strana od-do

1-19

Kód UT WoS článku

001406941100001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85216299458