Collaborative scenario modelling: engaging stakeholders to unravel opportunities for urban adaptation planning

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F61988987%3A17310%2F22%3AA2302CAP" target="_blank" >RIV/61988987:17310/22:A2302CAP - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221209552200195X#f0005" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221209552200195X#f0005</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101277" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101277</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Collaborative scenario modelling: engaging stakeholders to unravel opportunities for urban adaptation planning

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Uncertainties arising from the climate crisis and socioeconomic challenges require decision makers to advance climate change adaptation planning and practice. In response, many cities have adopted climate change adaptation strategies, which is also the case of cities in the Czech Republic. Although adaptation planning should be prospective, requiring long-term future oriented approaches and tools, the use of future scenarios have not been fully acknowledged yet. In this methodological paper, we introduce a combined approach for delivering spatially explicit future land use and land cover (LULC) scenarios developed as supporting tools for adaptation planning in three major Czech cities - Prague, Brno and Ostrava. The methodological approach consists of Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) downscaled to city level, to capture underpinning social, environmental and economic dynamics, of collaborative processes with city stakeholders, and computer modelling of LULCscenarios. While the collaborative process collects the perceptions and understandings of local needs, challenges and opportunities, the spatially explicit modelling of LULC changes allows for an easy-to-read visualization of the plausible futures. Also, nesting the scenarios in SSPs makes them consistent with global socioeconomic drivers. We propose that the introduced methodological approach can support adaptation planning by informing decision makers on plausible future urban developments, including stakes of diverse actors, hence allowing to address uncertainties and obstacles that might hinder adaptation efforts.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Collaborative scenario modelling: engaging stakeholders to unravel opportunities for urban adaptation planning

Popis výsledku anglicky

Uncertainties arising from the climate crisis and socioeconomic challenges require decision makers to advance climate change adaptation planning and practice. In response, many cities have adopted climate change adaptation strategies, which is also the case of cities in the Czech Republic. Although adaptation planning should be prospective, requiring long-term future oriented approaches and tools, the use of future scenarios have not been fully acknowledged yet. In this methodological paper, we introduce a combined approach for delivering spatially explicit future land use and land cover (LULC) scenarios developed as supporting tools for adaptation planning in three major Czech cities - Prague, Brno and Ostrava. The methodological approach consists of Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) downscaled to city level, to capture underpinning social, environmental and economic dynamics, of collaborative processes with city stakeholders, and computer modelling of LULCscenarios. While the collaborative process collects the perceptions and understandings of local needs, challenges and opportunities, the spatially explicit modelling of LULC changes allows for an easy-to-read visualization of the plausible futures. Also, nesting the scenarios in SSPs makes them consistent with global socioeconomic drivers. We propose that the introduced methodological approach can support adaptation planning by informing decision makers on plausible future urban developments, including stakes of diverse actors, hence allowing to address uncertainties and obstacles that might hinder adaptation efforts.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10511 - Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7)

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2022

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Urban Climate

ISSN

2212-0955

e-ISSN

2212-0955

Svazek periodika

—

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

101277

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

20

Strana od-do

1-20

Kód UT WoS článku

000857302400001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85138070996