Sovereign Default Risk and State-Owned Bank Fragility in Emerging Markets: evidence from China and Russia

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F61989100%3A27510%2F16%3A86096307" target="_blank" >RIV/61989100:27510/16:86096307 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/00216224:14560/16:00089164

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2016.1164438" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2016.1164438</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2016.1164438" target="_blank" >10.1080/14631377.2016.1164438</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Sovereign Default Risk and State-Owned Bank Fragility in Emerging Markets: evidence from China and Russia

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

In this paper we investigate the interdependence of the sovereign default risk and banking system fragility in two major emerging markets, China and Russia, using credit default swaps as a proxy for default risk. Both countries' banking industries have strong ties with their governments and public sector, even after a series of significant reforms in the last two decades. Our analysis is built on the case studies of each country's two biggest banks. We employ a bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction (VECM) framework to analyse the short- and long-run dynamics of the chosen CDS prices. We use Granger causality to describe the direction of the discovered dynamics. We find evidence of a stable long-run relationship between sovereign and bank CDS spreads in the chosen time period. The more stable relationship is found in cases where the biggest state-owned universal banks in emerging markets are closely managed by the government. But the fragility of those banks does not directly affect the state of public finances. However, in cases where state-owned banks directly participate in large governmental projects, banking fragility may result in the deterioration of state funds, while raising the risk of sovereign default.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Sovereign Default Risk and State-Owned Bank Fragility in Emerging Markets: evidence from China and Russia

Popis výsledku anglicky

In this paper we investigate the interdependence of the sovereign default risk and banking system fragility in two major emerging markets, China and Russia, using credit default swaps as a proxy for default risk. Both countries' banking industries have strong ties with their governments and public sector, even after a series of significant reforms in the last two decades. Our analysis is built on the case studies of each country's two biggest banks. We employ a bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction (VECM) framework to analyse the short- and long-run dynamics of the chosen CDS prices. We use Granger causality to describe the direction of the discovered dynamics. We find evidence of a stable long-run relationship between sovereign and bank CDS spreads in the chosen time period. The more stable relationship is found in cases where the biggest state-owned universal banks in emerging markets are closely managed by the government. But the fragility of those banks does not directly affect the state of public finances. However, in cases where state-owned banks directly participate in large governmental projects, banking fragility may result in the deterioration of state funds, while raising the risk of sovereign default.

Druh

J_x - Nezařazeno - Článek v odborném periodiku (Jimp, Jsc a Jost)

CEP obor

AH - Ekonomie

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA13-20613S" target="_blank" >GA13-20613S: Institucionální struktura dohledu nad finančními službami a monitorování systémového rizika ve střední Evropě</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2016

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Post-Communist Economies

ISSN

1463-1377

e-ISSN

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Svazek periodika

28

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

2

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

17

Strana od-do

232-248

Kód UT WoS článku

000375563200006

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

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