Demand forecasting: an alternative approach based on technical indicator Pbands
Identifikátory výsledku
Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F61989100%3A27510%2F21%3A10248363" target="_blank" >RIV/61989100:27510/21:10248363 - isvavai.cz</a>
Nalezeny alternativní kódy
RIV/04130081:_____/21:N0000005
Výsledek na webu
<a href="http://economic-research.pl/Journals/index.php/oc/article/view/1940/1832" target="_blank" >http://economic-research.pl/Journals/index.php/oc/article/view/1940/1832</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.24136/oc.2021.035" target="_blank" >10.24136/oc.2021.035</a>
Alternativní jazyky
Jazyk výsledku
angličtina
Název v původním jazyce
Demand forecasting: an alternative approach based on technical indicator Pbands
Popis výsledku v původním jazyce
Research background: Demand forecasting helps companies to anticipate purchases and plan the delivery or production. In order to face this complex problem, many statistical methods, artificial intelligence-based methods, and hybrid methods are currently being developed. However, all these methods have similar problematic issues, including the complexity, long computing time, and the need for high computing performance of the IT infrastructure. Purpose of the article: This study aims to verify and evaluate the possibility of using Google Trends data for poetry book demand forecasting and compare the results of the application of the statistical methods, neural networks, and a hybrid model versus the alternative possibility of using technical analysis methods to achieve immediate and accessible forecasting. Specifically, it aims to verify the possibility of immediate demand forecasting based on an alternative approach using Pbands technical indicator for poetry books in the European Quartet countries. Methods: The study performs the demand forecasting based on the technical analysis of the Google Trends data search in case of the keyword poetry in the European Quartet countries by several statistical methods, including the commonly used ETS statistical methods, ARIMA method, ARFIMA method, BATS method based on the combination of the Cox-Box transformation model and ARMA, artificial neural networks, the Theta model, a hybrid model, and an alternative approach of forecasting using Pbands indicator. The study uses MAPE and RMSE approaches to measure the accuracy. Findings & value added: Although most currently available demand prediction models are either slow or complex, the entrepreneurial practice requires fast, simple, and accurate ones. The study results show that the alternative Pbands approach is easily applicable and can predict short-term demand changes. Due to its simplicity, the Pbands method is suitable and convenient to monitor short-term data describing the demand. Demand prediction methods based on technical indicators represent a new approach for demand forecasting. The application of these technical indicators could be a further forecasting models research direction. The future of theoretical research in forecasting should be devoted mainly to simplifying and speeding up. Creating an automated model based on primary data parameters and easily interpretable results is a challenge for further research.
Název v anglickém jazyce
Demand forecasting: an alternative approach based on technical indicator Pbands
Popis výsledku anglicky
Research background: Demand forecasting helps companies to anticipate purchases and plan the delivery or production. In order to face this complex problem, many statistical methods, artificial intelligence-based methods, and hybrid methods are currently being developed. However, all these methods have similar problematic issues, including the complexity, long computing time, and the need for high computing performance of the IT infrastructure. Purpose of the article: This study aims to verify and evaluate the possibility of using Google Trends data for poetry book demand forecasting and compare the results of the application of the statistical methods, neural networks, and a hybrid model versus the alternative possibility of using technical analysis methods to achieve immediate and accessible forecasting. Specifically, it aims to verify the possibility of immediate demand forecasting based on an alternative approach using Pbands technical indicator for poetry books in the European Quartet countries. Methods: The study performs the demand forecasting based on the technical analysis of the Google Trends data search in case of the keyword poetry in the European Quartet countries by several statistical methods, including the commonly used ETS statistical methods, ARIMA method, ARFIMA method, BATS method based on the combination of the Cox-Box transformation model and ARMA, artificial neural networks, the Theta model, a hybrid model, and an alternative approach of forecasting using Pbands indicator. The study uses MAPE and RMSE approaches to measure the accuracy. Findings & value added: Although most currently available demand prediction models are either slow or complex, the entrepreneurial practice requires fast, simple, and accurate ones. The study results show that the alternative Pbands approach is easily applicable and can predict short-term demand changes. Due to its simplicity, the Pbands method is suitable and convenient to monitor short-term data describing the demand. Demand prediction methods based on technical indicators represent a new approach for demand forecasting. The application of these technical indicators could be a further forecasting models research direction. The future of theoretical research in forecasting should be devoted mainly to simplifying and speeding up. Creating an automated model based on primary data parameters and easily interpretable results is a challenge for further research.
Klasifikace
Druh
J<sub>imp</sub> - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science
CEP obor
—
OECD FORD obor
50204 - Business and management
Návaznosti výsledku
Projekt
—
Návaznosti
S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach
Ostatní
Rok uplatnění
2021
Kód důvěrnosti údajů
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Údaje specifické pro druh výsledku
Název periodika
Oeconomia Copernicana
ISSN
2083-1277
e-ISSN
—
Svazek periodika
12
Číslo periodika v rámci svazku
4
Stát vydavatele periodika
PL - Polská republika
Počet stran výsledku
31
Strana od-do
1063-1094
Kód UT WoS článku
000736500700008
EID výsledku v databázi Scopus
2-s2.0-85122577237