Short-term and long-term relationships between prices of imported oil and fuel products in the U.S

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F62156489%3A43110%2F16%3A43909460" target="_blank" >RIV/62156489:43110/16:43909460 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201664041285" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201664041285</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201664041285" target="_blank" >10.11118/actaun201664041285</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Short-term and long-term relationships between prices of imported oil and fuel products in the U.S

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

In this study, we analyzed a system of five monthly time series integrated I(1): average price of crude oil imported to the U.S. from OPEC countries (Opec), imported oil price from other than OPEC countries (NonOpec) in USD per barrel, average price of regular gasoline in the U.S. (Regular), premium quality gasoline price (Premium) and kerosene price (Kerosene) in U.S. cents per gallon. Cointegration was established by EG test and the series were analyzed by VECM model with lag selected via BIC criterion. Cointegration rank was determined by the Johansen procedure. According to VECM coefficients, prices of oil from OPEC countries and beyond OPEC exert influence upon all commodity prices in the system, but in a contradictory manner. Responses to innovation shocks in Opec and NonOpec stabilized within 8 to 10 months upon a nonzero shift and further became permanent. Innovation shock in both types of gasoline and Kerosene had only short-term significant impact upon the system. Forecast error variance in all variables is explained mainly by variation in oil prices, especially Opec, which persists with increased horizon. For a short horizon h = 1, FEVDs in gasoline and kerosene prices are primarily made of variation in the respective fuel prices.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Short-term and long-term relationships between prices of imported oil and fuel products in the U.S

Popis výsledku anglicky

In this study, we analyzed a system of five monthly time series integrated I(1): average price of crude oil imported to the U.S. from OPEC countries (Opec), imported oil price from other than OPEC countries (NonOpec) in USD per barrel, average price of regular gasoline in the U.S. (Regular), premium quality gasoline price (Premium) and kerosene price (Kerosene) in U.S. cents per gallon. Cointegration was established by EG test and the series were analyzed by VECM model with lag selected via BIC criterion. Cointegration rank was determined by the Johansen procedure. According to VECM coefficients, prices of oil from OPEC countries and beyond OPEC exert influence upon all commodity prices in the system, but in a contradictory manner. Responses to innovation shocks in Opec and NonOpec stabilized within 8 to 10 months upon a nonzero shift and further became permanent. Innovation shock in both types of gasoline and Kerosene had only short-term significant impact upon the system. Forecast error variance in all variables is explained mainly by variation in oil prices, especially Opec, which persists with increased horizon. For a short horizon h = 1, FEVDs in gasoline and kerosene prices are primarily made of variation in the respective fuel prices.

Druh

J_x - Nezařazeno - Článek v odborném periodiku (Jimp, Jsc a Jost)

CEP obor

BB - Aplikovaná statistika, operační výzkum

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2016

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis

ISSN

1211-8516

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

64

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

4

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

9

Strana od-do

1285-1293

Kód UT WoS článku

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EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-84991011689