Forecasting alcohol consumption in the Czech Republic

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F62156489%3A43110%2F16%3A43910895" target="_blank" >RIV/62156489:43110/16:43910895 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201664062133" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201664062133</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201664062133" target="_blank" >10.11118/actaun201664062133</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Forecasting alcohol consumption in the Czech Republic

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The paper deals with a forecast of developments in alcohol consumption based on current alcohol consumption per capita (expressed in litres of pure alcohol), and time series extrapolations. Alcohol consumption is to be considered from the vantage point of knowing the specifics of the product and the consequences of its excessive consumption. The predictive methodology makes use of the Box-Jenkins method; the ARIMA model, taking into account the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation process, which is a prerequisite for the successful identification of a time series model; model parameter estimation; appropriate transformations of time series; determining the order of differentiation and subsequent verification of the model. The chosen methodology for future trends in alcohol consumptions is a prerequisite for the proposed optional measures to control alcohol consumption in the Czech Republic. Due to the long term nature of the process to draw up and implement alcohol consumption regulation measures, the forecast covers the forthcoming 10 years.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Forecasting alcohol consumption in the Czech Republic

Popis výsledku anglicky

The paper deals with a forecast of developments in alcohol consumption based on current alcohol consumption per capita (expressed in litres of pure alcohol), and time series extrapolations. Alcohol consumption is to be considered from the vantage point of knowing the specifics of the product and the consequences of its excessive consumption. The predictive methodology makes use of the Box-Jenkins method; the ARIMA model, taking into account the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation process, which is a prerequisite for the successful identification of a time series model; model parameter estimation; appropriate transformations of time series; determining the order of differentiation and subsequent verification of the model. The chosen methodology for future trends in alcohol consumptions is a prerequisite for the proposed optional measures to control alcohol consumption in the Czech Republic. Due to the long term nature of the process to draw up and implement alcohol consumption regulation measures, the forecast covers the forthcoming 10 years.

Druh

J_x - Nezařazeno - Článek v odborném periodiku (Jimp, Jsc a Jost)

CEP obor

AH - Ekonomie

OECD FORD obor

—

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2016

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis

ISSN

1211-8516

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

64

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

6

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

8

Strana od-do

2133-2140

Kód UT WoS článku

—

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85008700685