Life Cycle Cost Analysis: Applying Monte Carlo Simulation on Energy Costs in Case Studies for Investments in Natural Gas Infrastructure

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F62156489%3A43110%2F24%3A43925415" target="_blank" >RIV/62156489:43110/24:43925415 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-49105-4_37" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-49105-4_37</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-49105-4_37" target="_blank" >10.1007/978-3-031-49105-4_37</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Life Cycle Cost Analysis: Applying Monte Carlo Simulation on Energy Costs in Case Studies for Investments in Natural Gas Infrastructure

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Decision makers in companies of the natural gas infrastructure establish their decisions on case studies. The case studies are usually prepared according to life cycle cost analysis in combination with the net present value method. Seven case studies, which were prepared by experts from consulting companies, are examined with regard to the robustness of the results obtained. The case studies investigate different options of compressor units for installation in gas facilities in Germany with the aim of finding the best option. The focus is on the evaluation of energy costs as the main cost driver and their future development. The authors of the case studies have to make assumptions for the future development of energy costs. These assumptions are associated with large uncertainties and are not backed up by risk analyses. Based on the seven case studies from 2001 to 2015 and the knowledge of the actual historical energy costs, it is possible to assess with which uncertainties case studies are associated and how robust the results are. Monte Carlo simulation is used to predict future energy prices. In addition to risk assessment with Monte Carlo simulation, other measures to identify the best option for an investment are proposed.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Life Cycle Cost Analysis: Applying Monte Carlo Simulation on Energy Costs in Case Studies for Investments in Natural Gas Infrastructure

Popis výsledku anglicky

Decision makers in companies of the natural gas infrastructure establish their decisions on case studies. The case studies are usually prepared according to life cycle cost analysis in combination with the net present value method. Seven case studies, which were prepared by experts from consulting companies, are examined with regard to the robustness of the results obtained. The case studies investigate different options of compressor units for installation in gas facilities in Germany with the aim of finding the best option. The focus is on the evaluation of energy costs as the main cost driver and their future development. The authors of the case studies have to make assumptions for the future development of energy costs. These assumptions are associated with large uncertainties and are not backed up by risk analyses. Based on the seven case studies from 2001 to 2015 and the knowledge of the actual historical energy costs, it is possible to assess with which uncertainties case studies are associated and how robust the results are. Monte Carlo simulation is used to predict future energy prices. In addition to risk assessment with Monte Carlo simulation, other measures to identify the best option for an investment are proposed.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

50204 - Business and management

Projekt

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Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

Applied Economic Research and Trends

ISBN

978-3-031-49104-7

ISSN

2198-7246

e-ISSN

2198-7254

Počet stran výsledku

15

Strana od-do

625-639

Název nakladatele

Springer Switzerland

Místo vydání

Cham

Místo konání akce

Brno

Datum konání akce

29. 6. 2023

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

WRD - Celosvětová akce

Kód UT WoS článku

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