Modeling Human Mortality from All Diseases in the Five Most Populated Countries of the European Union

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F62690094%3A18450%2F17%3A50013448" target="_blank" >RIV/62690094:18450/17:50013448 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11538-017-0341-y" target="_blank" >https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11538-017-0341-y</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-017-0341-y" target="_blank" >10.1007/s11538-017-0341-y</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Modeling Human Mortality from All Diseases in the Five Most Populated Countries of the European Union

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Age affectsmortality from diseases differently than it affects mortality from external causes, such as accidents. Exclusion of the latter leads to the “all-diseases” category. The age trajectories of mortality from all diseases are studied in the five most populated countries of the EU, and the shape of these 156 age trajectories is investigated in detail. The arithmetic mean of ages where mortality reaches a minimal value is 8.47 years with a 95% confidence interval of [8.08, 8.85] years. Two simple deterministic models fit the age trajectories on the two sides of the mortality minimum.ípadů) The inverse relationship is valid in all cases prior to this mortality minimum and death rates exactly decreased to three thousandths of its original size during the first 3000 days. After the mortality minimum, the standard Gompertz model fits the data in 63 cases, and the Gompertz model extended by a small quadratic element fits the remaining 93 cases. This analysis indicates that the exponential increase begins before the age of 15 years and that it is overshadowed by non-biological causes. Therefore, the existence of a mechanism switching that would explain the exponential increase in mortality after the age of 35 years is unlikely.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Modeling Human Mortality from All Diseases in the Five Most Populated Countries of the European Union

Popis výsledku anglicky

Age affectsmortality from diseases differently than it affects mortality from external causes, such as accidents. Exclusion of the latter leads to the “all-diseases” category. The age trajectories of mortality from all diseases are studied in the five most populated countries of the EU, and the shape of these 156 age trajectories is investigated in detail. The arithmetic mean of ages where mortality reaches a minimal value is 8.47 years with a 95% confidence interval of [8.08, 8.85] years. Two simple deterministic models fit the age trajectories on the two sides of the mortality minimum.ípadů) The inverse relationship is valid in all cases prior to this mortality minimum and death rates exactly decreased to three thousandths of its original size during the first 3000 days. After the mortality minimum, the standard Gompertz model fits the data in 63 cases, and the Gompertz model extended by a small quadratic element fits the remaining 93 cases. This analysis indicates that the exponential increase begins before the age of 15 years and that it is overshadowed by non-biological causes. Therefore, the existence of a mechanism switching that would explain the exponential increase in mortality after the age of 35 years is unlikely.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10103 - Statistics and probability

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2017

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Bulletin of mathematical biology

ISSN

0092-8240

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

79

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

11

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

41

Strana od-do

2558-2598

Kód UT WoS článku

000414148000006

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85028987583