Comparative validation of statistical and dynamical downscaling models on a dense grid in central Europe: temperature

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67179843%3A_____%2F15%3A00437127" target="_blank" >RIV/67179843:_____/15:00437127 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/68378289:_____/15:00432098 RIV/00216208:11320/15:10312901 RIV/00216208:11310/15:10312901

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1190-3" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1190-3</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1190-3" target="_blank" >10.1007/s00704-014-1190-3</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Comparative validation of statistical and dynamical downscaling models on a dense grid in central Europe: temperature

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Minimum and maximum temperature in two regional climate models and five statistical downscaling models are validated according to a unified set of criteria that have a potential relevance for impact assessments: persistence (temporal autocorrelations), spatial autocorrelations, extreme quantiles, skewness, kurtosis, and the degree of fit to observed data on both short and long times scales. The validation is conducted on two dense grids in central Europe as follows: (1) a station network and (2) a grid with a resolution of 10 km. The gridded dataset is not contaminated by artifacts of the interpolation procedure; therefore, we claim that using a gridded dataset as a validation base is a valid approach. The fit to observations in short time scales is equally good for the statistical downscaling (SDS) models and regional climate models (RCMs) in winter, while it is much better for the SDS models in summer. The reproduction of variability on long time scales, expressed as linear trends, is similarly successful by both SDS models and RCMs. Results for other criteria suggest that there is no justification for preferring dynamical models at the expense of statistical models—and vice versa. The non-linear SDS models do not outperform the linear ones.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Comparative validation of statistical and dynamical downscaling models on a dense grid in central Europe: temperature

Popis výsledku anglicky

Minimum and maximum temperature in two regional climate models and five statistical downscaling models are validated according to a unified set of criteria that have a potential relevance for impact assessments: persistence (temporal autocorrelations), spatial autocorrelations, extreme quantiles, skewness, kurtosis, and the degree of fit to observed data on both short and long times scales. The validation is conducted on two dense grids in central Europe as follows: (1) a station network and (2) a grid with a resolution of 10 km. The gridded dataset is not contaminated by artifacts of the interpolation procedure; therefore, we claim that using a gridded dataset as a validation base is a valid approach. The fit to observations in short time scales is equally good for the statistical downscaling (SDS) models and regional climate models (RCMs) in winter, while it is much better for the SDS models in summer. The reproduction of variability on long time scales, expressed as linear trends, is similarly successful by both SDS models and RCMs. Results for other criteria suggest that there is no justification for preferring dynamical models at the expense of statistical models—and vice versa. The non-linear SDS models do not outperform the linear ones.

Druh

J_x - Nezařazeno - Článek v odborném periodiku (Jimp, Jsc a Jost)

CEP obor

DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie

OECD FORD obor

—

Projekt

Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2015

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Theoretical and Applied Climatology

ISSN

0177-798X

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

120

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

3-4

Stát vydavatele periodika

AT - Rakouská republika

Počet stran výsledku

21

Strana od-do

533-553

Kód UT WoS článku

000353220700011

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-84939892527