Hybrid Numerical Models for Wind Speed Forecasting

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985807%3A_____%2F21%3A00542824" target="_blank" >RIV/67985807:_____/21:00542824 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2021.105669" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2021.105669</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2021.105669" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.jastp.2021.105669</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Hybrid Numerical Models for Wind Speed Forecasting

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Wind speed is involved in multiple scales physical phenomena and depends on specific features, that are not always easy to simulate numerically. Alternative solution that combines the physical advantages provided by numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations and statistical models is investigated for wind speed forecast. Several aspects that influence the wind speed forecast error at synoptic stations in Romania were identified, such as discrepancy between model and true topography, urbanicity or distance to the Black Sea. Calibration models in the framework of Generalized Additive Models (GAM) are developed for the proposed endeavour. A set of models applied to limited area model ALARO were introduced and evaluated. Results showed improved statistical scores compared to raw ALARO output and simple regression model: a decrease of up to 23% for the RMSE score, or 94% for the bias was observed for the model which performed best in terms of annual bias and RMSE. Different impact of terms involved in the calibration model is found. Most important effects in the model are associated with wind speed observations from the 24 past hours and simulated wind speed effect in relation to altitude.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Hybrid Numerical Models for Wind Speed Forecasting

Popis výsledku anglicky

Wind speed is involved in multiple scales physical phenomena and depends on specific features, that are not always easy to simulate numerically. Alternative solution that combines the physical advantages provided by numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations and statistical models is investigated for wind speed forecast. Several aspects that influence the wind speed forecast error at synoptic stations in Romania were identified, such as discrepancy between model and true topography, urbanicity or distance to the Black Sea. Calibration models in the framework of Generalized Additive Models (GAM) are developed for the proposed endeavour. A set of models applied to limited area model ALARO were introduced and evaluated. Results showed improved statistical scores compared to raw ALARO output and simple regression model: a decrease of up to 23% for the RMSE score, or 94% for the bias was observed for the model which performed best in terms of annual bias and RMSE. Different impact of terms involved in the calibration model is found. Most important effects in the model are associated with wind speed observations from the 24 past hours and simulated wind speed effect in relation to altitude.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10103 - Statistics and probability

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2021

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

ISSN

1364-6826

e-ISSN

1879-1824

Svazek periodika

220

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

September 2021

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

9

Strana od-do

105669

Kód UT WoS článku

000663419600007

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85106231560