The influence of meteorological factors on the risk of tick-borne encephalitis infection

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985807%3A_____%2F23%3A00573945" target="_blank" >RIV/67985807:_____/23:00573945 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/75010330:_____/23:00014230

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.prolekare.cz/en/journals/epidemiology-microbiology-immunology/2023-2-15/the-influence-of-meteorological-factors-on-the-risk-of-tick-borne-encephalitis-infection-134590" target="_blank" >https://www.prolekare.cz/en/journals/epidemiology-microbiology-immunology/2023-2-15/the-influence-of-meteorological-factors-on-the-risk-of-tick-borne-encephalitis-infection-134590</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

The influence of meteorological factors on the risk of tick-borne encephalitis infection

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

OBJECTIVES:: The aim of this work was to analyze the relationship between new cases of clinical tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) and various meteorological and seasonal predictors. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The modelling is based on national data from the Czech Republic for the period 2001–2016 in daily resolution, namely on average temperatures, average relative air humidity and the number of TBE cases classified according to the date of the first symptoms. Four variants of a negative binomial model from the generalized additive model class are used. The basic model relates the occurrence of TBE to the lagged ambient daily average temperature and daily average relative air humidity and their interaction with the lag reflecting the incubation period and other factors. The lag value was estimated via the optimization procedure based on Akaike information criterion. The model also includes the effect of the season and the effect of the day of the week. To increase the biological plausibility, the basic model has been expanded to account for possible time-varying effects of meteorological variables and to incorporate multiple lags. RESULTS: The most statistically significant effect is the within-year seasonality and then the interaction of the temperature and relative air humidity. The relationship of both meteorological factors and their interactions vary throughout the activities season of the hostquesting Ixodes ricinus. This also changes the conditions of occurrence of the new clinical cases of TBE. The time-varying effect of meteorological factors on the incidence of TBE shows non-trivial changes within a year. In the period before the middle of the calendar year (around the week 22) the effect decreases, then it is followed by an increase until the week 35. CONCLUSION: Flexible models were developed with quantitatively characterized effects of temperature, air humidity and their interaction, with the delay of the effect estimated through the optimization process. Performance of the model with multiple lags was checked using independent data to verify the possibility of using the results to improve the prediction of the risk of clinical cases of TBE uprise.

Název v anglickém jazyce

The influence of meteorological factors on the risk of tick-borne encephalitis infection

Popis výsledku anglicky

OBJECTIVES:: The aim of this work was to analyze the relationship between new cases of clinical tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) and various meteorological and seasonal predictors. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The modelling is based on national data from the Czech Republic for the period 2001–2016 in daily resolution, namely on average temperatures, average relative air humidity and the number of TBE cases classified according to the date of the first symptoms. Four variants of a negative binomial model from the generalized additive model class are used. The basic model relates the occurrence of TBE to the lagged ambient daily average temperature and daily average relative air humidity and their interaction with the lag reflecting the incubation period and other factors. The lag value was estimated via the optimization procedure based on Akaike information criterion. The model also includes the effect of the season and the effect of the day of the week. To increase the biological plausibility, the basic model has been expanded to account for possible time-varying effects of meteorological variables and to incorporate multiple lags. RESULTS: The most statistically significant effect is the within-year seasonality and then the interaction of the temperature and relative air humidity. The relationship of both meteorological factors and their interactions vary throughout the activities season of the hostquesting Ixodes ricinus. This also changes the conditions of occurrence of the new clinical cases of TBE. The time-varying effect of meteorological factors on the incidence of TBE shows non-trivial changes within a year. In the period before the middle of the calendar year (around the week 22) the effect decreases, then it is followed by an increase until the week 35. CONCLUSION: Flexible models were developed with quantitatively characterized effects of temperature, air humidity and their interaction, with the delay of the effect estimated through the optimization process. Performance of the model with multiple lags was checked using independent data to verify the possibility of using the results to improve the prediction of the risk of clinical cases of TBE uprise.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

10103 - Statistics and probability

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA22-24920S" target="_blank" >GA22-24920S: Vztahy mezi počasím, epidemiemi a sezónním chodem úmrtnosti</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Epidemiologie, Mikrobiologie, Imunologie

ISSN

1210-7913

e-ISSN

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Svazek periodika

72

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

2

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

11

Strana od-do

67-77

Kód UT WoS článku

001019477100001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85163108671