Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985807%3A_____%2F24%3A00602779" target="_blank" >RIV/67985807:_____/24:00602779 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1509-2024" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1509-2024</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1509-2024" target="_blank" >10.5194/esd-15-1509-2024</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of climate variability influencing temperature and precipitation in distant parts of the world. Traditionally, the ENSO influence is assessed considering its amplitude. Focusing on its quasi-oscillatory dynamics comprising multiple timescales, we analyze the causal influence of phases of ENSO oscillatory components on scales of precipitation variability in eastern China, using information-theoretic generalization of Granger causality. We uncover the causal influence of the ENSO quasi-biennial component on the precipitation variability on and around the annual scale, while the amplitude of the precipitation quasi-biennial component is influenced by the low-frequency ENSO components with periods of around 6 years. This cross-scale causal information flow is important mainly in the Yellow River basin (YWRB), while in the Yangtze River basin (YZRB) the causal effect of the ENSO amplitude is dominant. The presented results suggest that, in different regions, different aspects of ENSO dynamics should be employed for prediction of precipitation.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China

Popis výsledku anglicky

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of climate variability influencing temperature and precipitation in distant parts of the world. Traditionally, the ENSO influence is assessed considering its amplitude. Focusing on its quasi-oscillatory dynamics comprising multiple timescales, we analyze the causal influence of phases of ENSO oscillatory components on scales of precipitation variability in eastern China, using information-theoretic generalization of Granger causality. We uncover the causal influence of the ENSO quasi-biennial component on the precipitation variability on and around the annual scale, while the amplitude of the precipitation quasi-biennial component is influenced by the low-frequency ENSO components with periods of around 6 years. This cross-scale causal information flow is important mainly in the Yellow River basin (YWRB), while in the Yangtze River basin (YZRB) the causal effect of the ENSO amplitude is dominant. The presented results suggest that, in different regions, different aspects of ENSO dynamics should be employed for prediction of precipitation.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10510 - Climatic research

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Earth System Dynamics

ISSN

2190-4979

e-ISSN

2190-4987

Svazek periodika

15

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

6

Stát vydavatele periodika

DE - Spolková republika Německo

Počet stran výsledku

18

Strana od-do

1509-1526

Kód UT WoS článku

001366447400001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85210931684