Implications of Climate Change for the Distribution of the Invasive Grass Genus Nassella in South Africa and Lesotho

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985939%3A_____%2F25%3A00641305" target="_blank" >RIV/67985939:_____/25:00641305 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rama.2025.09.004" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rama.2025.09.004</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rama.2025.09.004" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.rama.2025.09.004</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Implications of Climate Change for the Distribution of the Invasive Grass Genus Nassella in South Africa and Lesotho

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Three South American grasses (Nassella neesiana, N. tenuissima and N. trichotoma) are naturalized in South Africa but not yet reported in Lesotho. N. tenuissima and N. trichotoma have been recognized as serious invaders since the 1970s. This study examined the key bioclimatic factors shaping their distribution, their current potential ranges, and projected future distributions under three carbon-emission scenarios for 2071–2100. Using nine bioclimatic predictors from the CHELSEA database, Maxent models were run with five global circulation models and three SSPs. Temperature-related variables, especially mean diurnal range, were most influential for all species, while precipitation in the driest month affected N. trichotoma. All three species could expand beyond their current range, though highly suitable areas may contract. The Maloti-Drakensberg region, including Lesotho, is predicted to become increasingly suitable, posing major risks to biodiversity and rangelands already degraded by overgrazing. Early detection and surveillance of potential Nassella incursions into Lesotho should therefore be prioritized.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Implications of Climate Change for the Distribution of the Invasive Grass Genus Nassella in South Africa and Lesotho

Popis výsledku anglicky

Three South American grasses (Nassella neesiana, N. tenuissima and N. trichotoma) are naturalized in South Africa but not yet reported in Lesotho. N. tenuissima and N. trichotoma have been recognized as serious invaders since the 1970s. This study examined the key bioclimatic factors shaping their distribution, their current potential ranges, and projected future distributions under three carbon-emission scenarios for 2071–2100. Using nine bioclimatic predictors from the CHELSEA database, Maxent models were run with five global circulation models and three SSPs. Temperature-related variables, especially mean diurnal range, were most influential for all species, while precipitation in the driest month affected N. trichotoma. All three species could expand beyond their current range, though highly suitable areas may contract. The Maloti-Drakensberg region, including Lesotho, is predicted to become increasingly suitable, posing major risks to biodiversity and rangelands already degraded by overgrazing. Early detection and surveillance of potential Nassella incursions into Lesotho should therefore be prioritized.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10618 - Ecology

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/EF18_053%2F0017850" target="_blank" >EF18_053/0017850: Mobility 2020</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Rangeland Ecology & Management

ISSN

1550-7424

e-ISSN

1551-5028

Svazek periodika

103

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

November

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

10

Strana od-do

367-376

Kód UT WoS článku

001604203300002

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-105019077909