Do elections accelerate the COVID-19 pandemic? Evidence from a natural experiment

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985998%3A_____%2F22%3A00556756" target="_blank" >RIV/67985998:_____/22:00556756 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/00216208:11640/22:00568750

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00870-1" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00870-1</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00870-1" target="_blank" >10.1007/s00148-021-00870-1</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Do elections accelerate the COVID-19 pandemic? Evidence from a natural experiment

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Elections define representative democracies but also produce spikes in physical mobility if voters need to travel to polling places. In this paper, we examine whether large-scale, in-person elections propagate the spread of COVID-19. We exploit a natural experiment from the Czech Republic, which biannually renews mandates in one-third of Senate constituencies that rotate according to the 1995 election law. We show that in the second and third weeks after the 2020 elections (held on October 9-10), new COVID-19 infections grew significantly faster in voting compared to non-voting constituencies. A temporarily related peak in hospital admissions and essentially no changes in test positivity rates suggest that the acceleration was not merely due to increased testing. The acceleration did not occur in the population above 65, consistently with strategic risk-avoidance by older voters. Our results have implications for postal voting reforms or postponing of large-scale, in-person (electoral) events during viral outbreaks.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Do elections accelerate the COVID-19 pandemic? Evidence from a natural experiment

Popis výsledku anglicky

Elections define representative democracies but also produce spikes in physical mobility if voters need to travel to polling places. In this paper, we examine whether large-scale, in-person elections propagate the spread of COVID-19. We exploit a natural experiment from the Czech Republic, which biannually renews mandates in one-third of Senate constituencies that rotate according to the 1995 election law. We show that in the second and third weeks after the 2020 elections (held on October 9-10), new COVID-19 infections grew significantly faster in voting compared to non-voting constituencies. A temporarily related peak in hospital admissions and essentially no changes in test positivity rates suggest that the acceleration was not merely due to increased testing. The acceleration did not occur in the population above 65, consistently with strategic risk-avoidance by older voters. Our results have implications for postal voting reforms or postponing of large-scale, in-person (electoral) events during viral outbreaks.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50202 - Applied Economics, Econometrics

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/EF16_013%2F0001740" target="_blank" >EF16_013/0001740: SHARE-CZ+ Národní výzkum stárnutí</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2022

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Journal of Population Economics

ISSN

0933-1433

e-ISSN

1432-1475

Svazek periodika

35

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

DE - Spolková republika Německo

Počet stran výsledku

44

Strana od-do

197-240

Kód UT WoS článku

000696757000002

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85115048707