Spatial Compound Event Spells in Present and Future Climates -Weather Generator vs. Regional Climate Models

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

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RIV/86652079:_____/18:00493368

Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Spatial Compound Event Spells in Present and Future Climates -Weather Generator vs. Regional Climate Models

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Weather generators (WGs) are often used to produce input weather data for climate change impact studies.nWhile the single-site generators are commonly used in agriculture, the multi-site generators are preferred fornhydrological experiments. To justify the use of WG in the impact studies, WGs should be validated for theirnability to represent various features of statistical structure of the real-world weather data, especially the featuresnwhich may significantly affect outputs from the impact models. The validation indices may include characteristicsnof (a) probability distribution functions of individual weather variables (mean, variability, quantiles, extremes),n(b) temporal structure (persistence, occurrence of spells of specific weather type), (c) spatial structure (onlynfor the spatial WGs), and (d) relationships between variables. Having been validated, the WG may be used tonproduce arbitrarily long weather series representing the baseline climate for use in the impact studies. To produce weather series representing the future climate, the generators parameters are typically modified by climate change scenarios.nThis contribution focuses on the results obtained by the parametric spatial weather generator SPAGETTA andncompares its performance with the results based on the ensemble of RCM simulations available from the CORDEX database. In the first part, the WG and RCMs are validated for their ability to reproduce spatial temperature and precipitation patterns focusing on compound temperature-precipitation event spells: spells of spatially extensive hot-dry, hot-wet, cold-dry and cold-wet weather.In the second part, the spells are analysed from both WG-based synthetic series (WG parameters are modified by RCM-based climate change scenarios) and RCM future climate simulations. The experiment is made within the frame of projects 16-04676S and 18-15958S sponsored by the Czech Science Foundation.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Spatial Compound Event Spells in Present and Future Climates -Weather Generator vs. Regional Climate Models

Popis výsledku anglicky

Weather generators (WGs) are often used to produce input weather data for climate change impact studies.nWhile the single-site generators are commonly used in agriculture, the multi-site generators are preferred fornhydrological experiments. To justify the use of WG in the impact studies, WGs should be validated for theirnability to represent various features of statistical structure of the real-world weather data, especially the featuresnwhich may significantly affect outputs from the impact models. The validation indices may include characteristicsnof (a) probability distribution functions of individual weather variables (mean, variability, quantiles, extremes),n(b) temporal structure (persistence, occurrence of spells of specific weather type), (c) spatial structure (onlynfor the spatial WGs), and (d) relationships between variables. Having been validated, the WG may be used tonproduce arbitrarily long weather series representing the baseline climate for use in the impact studies. To produce weather series representing the future climate, the generators parameters are typically modified by climate change scenarios.nThis contribution focuses on the results obtained by the parametric spatial weather generator SPAGETTA andncompares its performance with the results based on the ensemble of RCM simulations available from the CORDEX database. In the first part, the WG and RCMs are validated for their ability to reproduce spatial temperature and precipitation patterns focusing on compound temperature-precipitation event spells: spells of spatially extensive hot-dry, hot-wet, cold-dry and cold-wet weather.In the second part, the spells are analysed from both WG-based synthetic series (WG parameters are modified by RCM-based climate change scenarios) and RCM future climate simulations. The experiment is made within the frame of projects 16-04676S and 18-15958S sponsored by the Czech Science Foundation.

Druh

O - Ostatní výsledky

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

10510 - Climatic research

Projekt

Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2018

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů