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Parametric gridded weather generator for use in present and future climates: focus on spatial temperature characteristics

Identifikátory výsledku

  • Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

    <a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F20%3A00511224" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/20:00511224 - isvavai.cz</a>

  • Nalezeny alternativní kódy

    RIV/86652079:_____/20:00523908 RIV/00216208:11310/20:10416663

  • Výsledek na webu

    <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-019-03027-z" target="_blank" >https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-019-03027-z</a>

  • DOI - Digital Object Identifier

    <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-03027-z" target="_blank" >10.1007/s00704-019-03027-z</a>

Alternativní jazyky

  • Jazyk výsledku

    angličtina

  • Název v původním jazyce

    Parametric gridded weather generator for use in present and future climates: focus on spatial temperature characteristics

  • Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

    This study presents results of the pilot experiments made with new parametric multi-site multi-variable stochastic daily weather generator (WG) SPAGETTA. The experiments are performed for eight European regions and we focus on spatial characteristics of temperature. The WG is calibrated using the gridded weather data E-OBS. In evaluating the generator, the spatial and temporal temperature autocorrelations derived from the synthetic series were found to perfectly fit the values derived from the calibration data. Next, the WG is validated in terms of the frequency of “spatial hot days” and the annual maximum length of “spatial hot spells”. The results indicate a very good correspondence between characteristics derived from synthetic and calibration data. As part of the validation tests, the performance of the WG is compared with a regional climate model (RCM), which shows a similar performance as the generator. In a final experiment, the use of the WG for the future climate is demonstrated, the WG parameters (including the temperature autocorrelations) calibrated with the observed data are modified according to the RCM-based changes in these parameters. While analyzing synthetic series produced with the modified generator, we discuss partial impacts due to changes in individual WG parameters on the spatial hot days and spells. We show that the impacts are mainly (but not only) due to changes in temperature averages. The projected changes in temperature autocorrelations have also some impacts, larger for the spatial hot spells than for the spatial hot days. Climate change impacts on spatial hot days/spells based on the WG are compared with impacts based on the RCM, and we conclude that the differences are mainly due to simplifying assumptions adopted in our pilot experiment.

  • Název v anglickém jazyce

    Parametric gridded weather generator for use in present and future climates: focus on spatial temperature characteristics

  • Popis výsledku anglicky

    This study presents results of the pilot experiments made with new parametric multi-site multi-variable stochastic daily weather generator (WG) SPAGETTA. The experiments are performed for eight European regions and we focus on spatial characteristics of temperature. The WG is calibrated using the gridded weather data E-OBS. In evaluating the generator, the spatial and temporal temperature autocorrelations derived from the synthetic series were found to perfectly fit the values derived from the calibration data. Next, the WG is validated in terms of the frequency of “spatial hot days” and the annual maximum length of “spatial hot spells”. The results indicate a very good correspondence between characteristics derived from synthetic and calibration data. As part of the validation tests, the performance of the WG is compared with a regional climate model (RCM), which shows a similar performance as the generator. In a final experiment, the use of the WG for the future climate is demonstrated, the WG parameters (including the temperature autocorrelations) calibrated with the observed data are modified according to the RCM-based changes in these parameters. While analyzing synthetic series produced with the modified generator, we discuss partial impacts due to changes in individual WG parameters on the spatial hot days and spells. We show that the impacts are mainly (but not only) due to changes in temperature averages. The projected changes in temperature autocorrelations have also some impacts, larger for the spatial hot spells than for the spatial hot days. Climate change impacts on spatial hot days/spells based on the WG are compared with impacts based on the RCM, and we conclude that the differences are mainly due to simplifying assumptions adopted in our pilot experiment.

Klasifikace

  • Druh

    J<sub>imp</sub> - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

  • CEP obor

  • OECD FORD obor

    10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Návaznosti výsledku

  • Projekt

    Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.

  • Návaznosti

    P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Ostatní

  • Rok uplatnění

    2020

  • Kód důvěrnosti údajů

    S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Údaje specifické pro druh výsledku

  • Název periodika

    Theoretical and Applied Climatology

  • ISSN

    0177-798X

  • e-ISSN

  • Svazek periodika

    139

  • Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

    3-4

  • Stát vydavatele periodika

    AT - Rakouská republika

  • Počet stran výsledku

    14

  • Strana od-do

    1031-1044

  • Kód UT WoS článku

    000511528400017

  • EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

    2-s2.0-85075367211