Trends in winter circulation over the British Isles and central Europe in twenty-first century projections by 25 CMIP5 GCMs

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F19%3A00488573" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/19:00488573 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/00216208:11310/18:10376288

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4178-3" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4178-3</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4178-3" target="_blank" >10.1007/s00382-018-4178-3</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Trends in winter circulation over the British Isles and central Europe in twenty-first century projections by 25 CMIP5 GCMs

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Winter midlatitude atmospheric circulation has been extensively studied for its tight link to surface weather, and automated circulation classifications have often been used to this end. Here, eight such classifications are applied to daily sea level pressure patterns simulated by an ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs twenty-first century projections for the British Isles and central Europe in order to robustly estimate future changes in frequency, persistence, and strength of synoptic-scale circulation there. All methods are able to identify present-day biases of models reported before, such as an overestimated occurrence of zonal flow and underestimation of anticyclonic conditions and easterly advection, although the strength of these biases varies among the methods. In future, models show that the zonal flow will become more frequent while the strength of the mean flow is not projected to change. Over the British Isles, the models that better simulate the latitude of zonal flow over the historical period indicate a slight equatorward shift of westerlies in their projections, while the poleward expansion of circulation—expected in future at global scale—is apparent in those models that have large errors. Over central Europe, some classifications indicate an increase in persistence and especially in frequency of anticyclonic types, which is, however, shown to be rather an artifact of some methods than a real feature. On the other hand, the easterly flow is robustly projected to become markedly weaker in central Europe, which we hypothesize might be an important factor contributing to the projected decrease of cold extremes there.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Trends in winter circulation over the British Isles and central Europe in twenty-first century projections by 25 CMIP5 GCMs

Popis výsledku anglicky

Winter midlatitude atmospheric circulation has been extensively studied for its tight link to surface weather, and automated circulation classifications have often been used to this end. Here, eight such classifications are applied to daily sea level pressure patterns simulated by an ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs twenty-first century projections for the British Isles and central Europe in order to robustly estimate future changes in frequency, persistence, and strength of synoptic-scale circulation there. All methods are able to identify present-day biases of models reported before, such as an overestimated occurrence of zonal flow and underestimation of anticyclonic conditions and easterly advection, although the strength of these biases varies among the methods. In future, models show that the zonal flow will become more frequent while the strength of the mean flow is not projected to change. Over the British Isles, the models that better simulate the latitude of zonal flow over the historical period indicate a slight equatorward shift of westerlies in their projections, while the poleward expansion of circulation—expected in future at global scale—is apparent in those models that have large errors. Over central Europe, some classifications indicate an increase in persistence and especially in frequency of anticyclonic types, which is, however, shown to be rather an artifact of some methods than a real feature. On the other hand, the easterly flow is robustly projected to become markedly weaker in central Europe, which we hypothesize might be an important factor contributing to the projected decrease of cold extremes there.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2019

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Climate Dynamics

ISSN

0930-7575

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

52

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1-2

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

13

Strana od-do

1063-1075

Kód UT WoS článku

000460619200059

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85046030623