Classifications of winter atmospheric circulation patterns: validation of CMIP5 GCMs over Europe and the North Atlantic

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F19%3A00490873" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/19:00490873 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/00216208:11310/18:10376289

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-018-4344-7#enumeration" target="_blank" >https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-018-4344-7#enumeration</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4344-7" target="_blank" >10.1007/s00382-018-4344-7</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Classifications of winter atmospheric circulation patterns: validation of CMIP5 GCMs over Europe and the North Atlantic

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Winter atmospheric circulation over the Euro-Atlantic domain and three subdomains (British Isles, Central Europe, and Eastern Mediterranean) is validated in outputs of historical runs of 32 global climate models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Eight automated classifications of daily SLP patterns from five reanalysis datasets are produced for each domain in order to analyse the effect of the choices of methods and reference data on results. The results show that the ranking of GCMs fundamentally depends on which classification is used: therefore, only parallel usage of multiple classifications can provide robust rankings of models. Considering all eight classifications, three models (HadGEM2-CC, MIROC4h, and CNRM-CM5) are among the best in simulating the frequency of circulation types (CTs) over all four domains. Regardless the domain, the bias in CT frequency of the worst GCMs is larger than 50% of the frequency in the reference reanalysis dataset. Conversely, the best GCM for each domain differs from the reference reanalysis by about 10–20%, which is nearly the same result as found for the NOAA-CIRES Twentieth Century Reanalysis (version 2). The persistence of circulation is simulated better than the frequency with errors rarely exceeding 15%. The GCMs overestimate the frequency of westerly circulation over all domains (by about 7% over the British Isles, 21% over Central Europe, and almost 70% over the Eastern Mediterranean) and also cyclonic CTs, while easterly and anticyclonic CTs are typically underestimated by 30–40%.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Classifications of winter atmospheric circulation patterns: validation of CMIP5 GCMs over Europe and the North Atlantic

Popis výsledku anglicky

Winter atmospheric circulation over the Euro-Atlantic domain and three subdomains (British Isles, Central Europe, and Eastern Mediterranean) is validated in outputs of historical runs of 32 global climate models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Eight automated classifications of daily SLP patterns from five reanalysis datasets are produced for each domain in order to analyse the effect of the choices of methods and reference data on results. The results show that the ranking of GCMs fundamentally depends on which classification is used: therefore, only parallel usage of multiple classifications can provide robust rankings of models. Considering all eight classifications, three models (HadGEM2-CC, MIROC4h, and CNRM-CM5) are among the best in simulating the frequency of circulation types (CTs) over all four domains. Regardless the domain, the bias in CT frequency of the worst GCMs is larger than 50% of the frequency in the reference reanalysis dataset. Conversely, the best GCM for each domain differs from the reference reanalysis by about 10–20%, which is nearly the same result as found for the NOAA-CIRES Twentieth Century Reanalysis (version 2). The persistence of circulation is simulated better than the frequency with errors rarely exceeding 15%. The GCMs overestimate the frequency of westerly circulation over all domains (by about 7% over the British Isles, 21% over Central Europe, and almost 70% over the Eastern Mediterranean) and also cyclonic CTs, while easterly and anticyclonic CTs are typically underestimated by 30–40%.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2019

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Climate Dynamics

ISSN

0930-7575

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

52

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

5-6

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

24

Strana od-do

3575-3598

Kód UT WoS článku

000463842700060

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85049564480