Impact of 1- and 2-moment cloud microphysics and horizontal resolution on lightning Potential Index within COSMO NWP model

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F20%3A00522158" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/20:00522158 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809519306982" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809519306982</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104862" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104862</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Impact of 1- and 2-moment cloud microphysics and horizontal resolution on lightning Potential Index within COSMO NWP model

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Lightning is considered one of the most severe meteorological hazards. Currently, many Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models make operational use of the Lightning Potential Index (LPI), which enables one to determine areas prone to lightning. In this study, we investigated the ability of LPI to forecast lightning by comparing forecasts of LPI among four configurations of the COSMO NWP model. The four configurations of the COSMO NWP model differ in horizontal resolution (1.2 and 2.2 km) and cloud microphysical scheme (1- and 2-moment cloud microphysics). We evaluated binary forecasts of LPI for varying lead time (1−10h) against the observed number and peak current of lightning flashes recorded by EUCLID network. The evaluation was performed for eight area sizes (4.8 km × 4.8 km to 240 km × 240 km) around model grid points and for 8 days in 2018 when thunderstorms occurred in Central Europe. To assess the success of lightning prediction, we evaluated LPI forecasts using the Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (AROC). Results show that the forecasts almost always outperformed the random forecast (AROC = 0.5). As expected, the prediction was more successful for models having higher resolution and the models comprising 2-moment cloud microphysics. The results of the evaluation of LPI forecasts compared to the number of observed lightning were similar to those compared to the sum of the observed peak current. However, differences in results among the four configurations of the model were larger in the latter case. Based on the performed evaluation, we confirm that LPI is a suitable tool for implicit forecasting of lightning in the COSMO NWP model.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Impact of 1- and 2-moment cloud microphysics and horizontal resolution on lightning Potential Index within COSMO NWP model

Popis výsledku anglicky

Lightning is considered one of the most severe meteorological hazards. Currently, many Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models make operational use of the Lightning Potential Index (LPI), which enables one to determine areas prone to lightning. In this study, we investigated the ability of LPI to forecast lightning by comparing forecasts of LPI among four configurations of the COSMO NWP model. The four configurations of the COSMO NWP model differ in horizontal resolution (1.2 and 2.2 km) and cloud microphysical scheme (1- and 2-moment cloud microphysics). We evaluated binary forecasts of LPI for varying lead time (1−10h) against the observed number and peak current of lightning flashes recorded by EUCLID network. The evaluation was performed for eight area sizes (4.8 km × 4.8 km to 240 km × 240 km) around model grid points and for 8 days in 2018 when thunderstorms occurred in Central Europe. To assess the success of lightning prediction, we evaluated LPI forecasts using the Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (AROC). Results show that the forecasts almost always outperformed the random forecast (AROC = 0.5). As expected, the prediction was more successful for models having higher resolution and the models comprising 2-moment cloud microphysics. The results of the evaluation of LPI forecasts compared to the number of observed lightning were similar to those compared to the sum of the observed peak current. However, differences in results among the four configurations of the model were larger in the latter case. Based on the performed evaluation, we confirm that LPI is a suitable tool for implicit forecasting of lightning in the COSMO NWP model.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2020

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Atmospheric Research

ISSN

0169-8095

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

237

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

June

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

14

Strana od-do

UNSP 104862

Kód UT WoS článku

000525323100006

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85078040759