Temporal changes of heat-attributable mortality in Prague, Czech Republic, over 1982–2019

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F22%3A00558151" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/22:00558151 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/60460709:41330/22:91547

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212095522001158?via%3Dihub" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212095522001158?via%3Dihub</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101197" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101197</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Temporal changes of heat-attributable mortality in Prague, Czech Republic, over 1982–2019

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

While previous research on historical changes in heat-related mortality observed decreasing trends over the recent decades, future projections suggest increasing impact of heat on mortality in most regions of the world. This study aimed to analyse temporal changes in temperature-mortality relationships in Prague, Czech Republic in the warm season (May–September), using a daily mortality time series from 1982 to 2019. To investigate possible effect of adaptation to increasing temperature, we divided the study period into four decades (1980s–2010s). We used conditional Poisson regression models to identify decade-specific relative risk of heat-related mortality and to calculate the annual number of heat-attributable deaths and the heat-attributable fraction of total warm season deaths. We estimated their trends over the whole study period by a generalized additive model with non-parametric smoothing spline. Our results showed that the unprecedentedly hot 2010s was associated with approximately twice as large relative risk of heat-related mortality than in previous decades. This resulted in the reversal of the trend in heat-attributable mortality in the 1990s and its increase during the last two decades. Our findings highlight the importance of further improvement of adaptation measures such as heat-and-health warning systems to protect the heat-susceptible population.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Temporal changes of heat-attributable mortality in Prague, Czech Republic, over 1982–2019

Popis výsledku anglicky

While previous research on historical changes in heat-related mortality observed decreasing trends over the recent decades, future projections suggest increasing impact of heat on mortality in most regions of the world. This study aimed to analyse temporal changes in temperature-mortality relationships in Prague, Czech Republic in the warm season (May–September), using a daily mortality time series from 1982 to 2019. To investigate possible effect of adaptation to increasing temperature, we divided the study period into four decades (1980s–2010s). We used conditional Poisson regression models to identify decade-specific relative risk of heat-related mortality and to calculate the annual number of heat-attributable deaths and the heat-attributable fraction of total warm season deaths. We estimated their trends over the whole study period by a generalized additive model with non-parametric smoothing spline. Our results showed that the unprecedentedly hot 2010s was associated with approximately twice as large relative risk of heat-related mortality than in previous decades. This resulted in the reversal of the trend in heat-attributable mortality in the 1990s and its increase during the last two decades. Our findings highlight the importance of further improvement of adaptation measures such as heat-and-health warning systems to protect the heat-susceptible population.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA22-24920S" target="_blank" >GA22-24920S: Vztahy mezi počasím, epidemiemi a sezónním chodem úmrtnosti</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2022

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Urban Climate

ISSN

2212-0955

e-ISSN

2212-0955

Svazek periodika

44

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

Jul 22

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

12

Strana od-do

101197

Kód UT WoS článku

000816035200007

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85131693417