Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F24%3A00583513" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/24:00583513 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/60460709:41330/24:100770

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-45901-z" target="_blank" >https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-45901-z</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z" target="_blank" >10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively: among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%–0.4% at 1.5–3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels

Popis výsledku anglicky

Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively: among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%–0.4% at 1.5–3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10510 - Climatic research

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA22-24920S" target="_blank" >GA22-24920S: Vztahy mezi počasím, epidemiemi a sezónním chodem úmrtnosti</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Nature Communications

ISSN

2041-1723

e-ISSN

2041-1723

Svazek periodika

15

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

15

Strana od-do

1796

Kód UT WoS článku

001178774300005

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85186221798