Prolongation of Compound Dry–Hot Seasons Over Europe Under Climate Change Scenarios

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F23%3A00575529" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/23:00575529 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/86652079:_____/23:00575867 RIV/60460709:41330/23:97248

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023EF003557" target="_blank" >https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023EF003557</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003557" target="_blank" >10.1029/2023EF003557</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Prolongation of Compound Dry–Hot Seasons Over Europe Under Climate Change Scenarios

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Compound effects of drought and heat are regarded as one of the greatest hazards in relation to climate change. We study characteristics of dry–hot seasons in Europe in an ensemble of CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs). Evaluation against the E-OBS gridded data set for 1976–2005 showed that the RCMs were able to reproduce the spatial pattern of the dry–hot season length but the simulated seasons tended to start later and interannual variability of their length was underestimated. Bias was larger (smaller) in the case of maximum (minimum) length over the 30-year period compared to the median length. Changes in the dry–hot seasons were then analyzed for three time slices (2006–2035, 2036–2065, and 2066–2095) and low and high greenhouse gas concentration pathways. Distinct prolongation (compared to the 1976–2005 simulated climate) was projected for 2036–2065 in the Mediterranean and Western Europe (10–30 days), regardless of the concentration pathway. The dry–hot seasons length was similar in the 2036–2065 and 2066–2095 time slices under the low concentration pathway but major extensions were found under the high concentration scenario over large parts of Europe (20–50 days). The projected spatial patterns of changes in the dry–hot seasons length depend primarily on the driving global climate model. Although the extensions are predominantly driven by increasing temperature, simulated precipitation changes modulate the resulting pattern by amplifying (reducing) the dry–hot seasons length in Southern (Northern) Europe.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Prolongation of Compound Dry–Hot Seasons Over Europe Under Climate Change Scenarios

Popis výsledku anglicky

Compound effects of drought and heat are regarded as one of the greatest hazards in relation to climate change. We study characteristics of dry–hot seasons in Europe in an ensemble of CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs). Evaluation against the E-OBS gridded data set for 1976–2005 showed that the RCMs were able to reproduce the spatial pattern of the dry–hot season length but the simulated seasons tended to start later and interannual variability of their length was underestimated. Bias was larger (smaller) in the case of maximum (minimum) length over the 30-year period compared to the median length. Changes in the dry–hot seasons were then analyzed for three time slices (2006–2035, 2036–2065, and 2066–2095) and low and high greenhouse gas concentration pathways. Distinct prolongation (compared to the 1976–2005 simulated climate) was projected for 2036–2065 in the Mediterranean and Western Europe (10–30 days), regardless of the concentration pathway. The dry–hot seasons length was similar in the 2036–2065 and 2066–2095 time slices under the low concentration pathway but major extensions were found under the high concentration scenario over large parts of Europe (20–50 days). The projected spatial patterns of changes in the dry–hot seasons length depend primarily on the driving global climate model. Although the extensions are predominantly driven by increasing temperature, simulated precipitation changes modulate the resulting pattern by amplifying (reducing) the dry–hot seasons length in Southern (Northern) Europe.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Projekt

Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Earth's Future

ISSN

2328-4277

e-ISSN

2328-4277

Svazek periodika

11

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

9

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

16

Strana od-do

e2023EF003557

Kód UT WoS článku

001066329300001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85170686700