Future Changes in Day-to-Day Precipitation Variability in Europe

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F24%3A00587882" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/24:00587882 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/86652079:_____/24:00598067

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/hydr/aop/JHM-D-23-0206.1/JHM-D-23-0206.1.xml" target="_blank" >https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/hydr/aop/JHM-D-23-0206.1/JHM-D-23-0206.1.xml</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-23-0206.1" target="_blank" >10.1175/JHM-D-23-0206.1</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Future Changes in Day-to-Day Precipitation Variability in Europe

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

We analyzed regional patterns of day-to-day precipitation variability across Europe and assessed their future changes using CORDEX regional climate models. A discrete Markov chain process was employed to calculate transition probabilities from wet and dry states and the precipitation variability was quantified using the proposed Variability index (IVAR, sum of wet-to-dry and dry-to-wet transitions divided by total number of transitions). IVAR is, in general, lowest in Southern Europe and gradually increases northward in the observed data. Performance of the regional climate models is season dependent: they capture IVAR reasonably well in summer but higher simulated variability was found for the winter season. IVAR trends computed for the 2006–2095 period suggest decreasing day-to-day precipitation variability over Southern Europe, especially in summer under the high-concentration RCP8.5 pathway. By contrast, increased variability is projected in Northern Europe. Between these two regions, future IVAR trends are less clear, because they strongly depend on the selection of driving global model, hinting of an uncertain future hydroclimate in the Central European region.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Future Changes in Day-to-Day Precipitation Variability in Europe

Popis výsledku anglicky

We analyzed regional patterns of day-to-day precipitation variability across Europe and assessed their future changes using CORDEX regional climate models. A discrete Markov chain process was employed to calculate transition probabilities from wet and dry states and the precipitation variability was quantified using the proposed Variability index (IVAR, sum of wet-to-dry and dry-to-wet transitions divided by total number of transitions). IVAR is, in general, lowest in Southern Europe and gradually increases northward in the observed data. Performance of the regional climate models is season dependent: they capture IVAR reasonably well in summer but higher simulated variability was found for the winter season. IVAR trends computed for the 2006–2095 period suggest decreasing day-to-day precipitation variability over Southern Europe, especially in summer under the high-concentration RCP8.5 pathway. By contrast, increased variability is projected in Northern Europe. Between these two regions, future IVAR trends are less clear, because they strongly depend on the selection of driving global model, hinting of an uncertain future hydroclimate in the Central European region.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10510 - Climatic research

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA21-07954S" target="_blank" >GA21-07954S: Měnící se proměnlivost atmosféry</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Journal of Hydrometeorology

ISSN

1525-755X

e-ISSN

1525-7541

Svazek periodika

25

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

8

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

11

Strana od-do

1165-1175

Kód UT WoS článku

001291066700001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85210584076