Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with cold spells during 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F24%3A00582416" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/24:00582416 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/60460709:41330/24:101636

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519623002772" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519623002772</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00277-2" target="_blank" >10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00277-2</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with cold spells during 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Background Exposure to cold spells is associated with mortality. However, little is known about the global mortality burden of cold spells. Methods A three-stage meta-analytical method was used to estimate the global mortality burden associated with cold spells by means of a time series dataset of 1960 locations across 59 countries (or regions). First, we fitted the locationspecific, cold spell-related mortality associations using a quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model with a lag period of up to 21 days. Second, we built a multivariate meta-regression model between locationspecific associations and seven predictors. Finally, we predicted the global grid-specific cold spell-related mortality associations during 2000-19 using the fitted meta-regression model and the yearly grid-specific meta-predictors. We calculated the annual excess deaths, excess death ratio (excess deaths per 1000 deaths), and excess death rate (excess deaths per 100 000 population) due to cold spells for each grid across the world. Findings Globally, 205 932 (95% empirical CI [eCI] 162 692-250 337) excess deaths, representing 3 & sdot:81 (95% eCI 2 & sdot:93-4 & sdot:71) excess deaths per 1000 deaths (excess death ratio), and 3 & sdot:03 (2 & sdot:33-3 & sdot:75) excess deaths per 100 000 population (excess death rate) were associated with cold spells per year between 2000 and 2019. The annual average global excess death ratio in 2016-19 increased by 0 & sdot:12 percentage points and the excess death rate in 2016-19 increased by 0 & sdot:18 percentage points, compared with those in 2000-03. The mortality burden varied geographically. The excess death ratio and rate were highest in Europe, whereas these indicators were lowest in Africa. Temperate climates had higher excess death ratio and rate associated with cold spells than other climate zones. Interpretation Cold spells are associated with substantial mortality burden around the world with geographically varying patterns. Although the number of cold spells has on average been decreasing since year 2000, the public health threat of cold spells remains substantial. The findings indicate an urgency of taking local and regional measures to protect the public from the mortality burdens of cold spells.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with cold spells during 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study

Popis výsledku anglicky

Background Exposure to cold spells is associated with mortality. However, little is known about the global mortality burden of cold spells. Methods A three-stage meta-analytical method was used to estimate the global mortality burden associated with cold spells by means of a time series dataset of 1960 locations across 59 countries (or regions). First, we fitted the locationspecific, cold spell-related mortality associations using a quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model with a lag period of up to 21 days. Second, we built a multivariate meta-regression model between locationspecific associations and seven predictors. Finally, we predicted the global grid-specific cold spell-related mortality associations during 2000-19 using the fitted meta-regression model and the yearly grid-specific meta-predictors. We calculated the annual excess deaths, excess death ratio (excess deaths per 1000 deaths), and excess death rate (excess deaths per 100 000 population) due to cold spells for each grid across the world. Findings Globally, 205 932 (95% empirical CI [eCI] 162 692-250 337) excess deaths, representing 3 & sdot:81 (95% eCI 2 & sdot:93-4 & sdot:71) excess deaths per 1000 deaths (excess death ratio), and 3 & sdot:03 (2 & sdot:33-3 & sdot:75) excess deaths per 100 000 population (excess death rate) were associated with cold spells per year between 2000 and 2019. The annual average global excess death ratio in 2016-19 increased by 0 & sdot:12 percentage points and the excess death rate in 2016-19 increased by 0 & sdot:18 percentage points, compared with those in 2000-03. The mortality burden varied geographically. The excess death ratio and rate were highest in Europe, whereas these indicators were lowest in Africa. Temperate climates had higher excess death ratio and rate associated with cold spells than other climate zones. Interpretation Cold spells are associated with substantial mortality burden around the world with geographically varying patterns. Although the number of cold spells has on average been decreasing since year 2000, the public health threat of cold spells remains substantial. The findings indicate an urgency of taking local and regional measures to protect the public from the mortality burdens of cold spells.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10510 - Climatic research

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA22-24920S" target="_blank" >GA22-24920S: Vztahy mezi počasím, epidemiemi a sezónním chodem úmrtnosti</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Lancet Planetary Health

ISSN

2542-5196

e-ISSN

2542-5196

Svazek periodika

8

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

2

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

9

Strana od-do

"e108"-"e116"

Kód UT WoS článku

001182493900001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85184714850