Global Excess Deaths Associated with Heatwaves in 2023 and the Contribution of Human-Induced Climate Change

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F25%3A00638803" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/25:00638803 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/60460709:41330/25:106335

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666675825003133" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666675825003133</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.xinn.2025.101110" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.xinn.2025.101110</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Global Excess Deaths Associated with Heatwaves in 2023 and the Contribution of Human-Induced Climate Change

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

An unprecedented heatwave swept the globe in 2023, marking it as one of the hottest years on record, raising concerns about its health impacts. However, a comprehensive assessment of the heatwave-related mortality and its attribution to human-induced climate change remains lacking. We aim to address this gap by combining high-resolution climate and mortality data from 2,013 locations across 67 countries with a three-stage modelling approach. First, we estimated historical heatwave-mortality associations using a quasi-Poisson regression model with distributed lag structures, considering lag effects, seasonality, and within-week variations. Second, we pooled the estimates in meta-regression, accounting for spatial heterogeneity and potential changes in heatwave-mortality associations over time. Third, we predicted grid-specific (0.5°×0.5°) association in 2023 and calculated the heatwave-related excess deaths, death ratio, and death rate per million people. Attribution analysis was conducted by comparing heatwave-related mortality under factual and counterfactual climate scenarios. We estimated 178,486 excess deaths (95% empirical Confidence Interval [eCI]: 159,892−204,147) related to the 2023 heatwave, accounting for 0.73% of global deaths, corresponding to 23 deaths per million people. The highest mortality rates occurred in Southern (120,95% eCI: 116−126), Eastern (107, 95% eCI: 100−114), and Western Europe (66, 95% eCI: 62−70). The excess death ratio was also higher in these regions. Notably, 54.29% (95% eCI: 45.71−61.36%) of these deaths were attributable to human-induced climate change. These results underscore the urgent need for adaptive public health interventions and climate mitigation strategies to mitigate future mortality burdens under increasing global warming.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Global Excess Deaths Associated with Heatwaves in 2023 and the Contribution of Human-Induced Climate Change

Popis výsledku anglicky

An unprecedented heatwave swept the globe in 2023, marking it as one of the hottest years on record, raising concerns about its health impacts. However, a comprehensive assessment of the heatwave-related mortality and its attribution to human-induced climate change remains lacking. We aim to address this gap by combining high-resolution climate and mortality data from 2,013 locations across 67 countries with a three-stage modelling approach. First, we estimated historical heatwave-mortality associations using a quasi-Poisson regression model with distributed lag structures, considering lag effects, seasonality, and within-week variations. Second, we pooled the estimates in meta-regression, accounting for spatial heterogeneity and potential changes in heatwave-mortality associations over time. Third, we predicted grid-specific (0.5°×0.5°) association in 2023 and calculated the heatwave-related excess deaths, death ratio, and death rate per million people. Attribution analysis was conducted by comparing heatwave-related mortality under factual and counterfactual climate scenarios. We estimated 178,486 excess deaths (95% empirical Confidence Interval [eCI]: 159,892−204,147) related to the 2023 heatwave, accounting for 0.73% of global deaths, corresponding to 23 deaths per million people. The highest mortality rates occurred in Southern (120,95% eCI: 116−126), Eastern (107, 95% eCI: 100−114), and Western Europe (66, 95% eCI: 62−70). The excess death ratio was also higher in these regions. Notably, 54.29% (95% eCI: 45.71−61.36%) of these deaths were attributable to human-induced climate change. These results underscore the urgent need for adaptive public health interventions and climate mitigation strategies to mitigate future mortality burdens under increasing global warming.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10510 - Climatic research

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

The Innovation

ISSN

2666-6758

e-ISSN

2666-6758

Svazek periodika

6

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

10

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

7

Strana od-do

101110

Kód UT WoS článku

001594110900002

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-105017659374