Links of atmospheric circulation to cold days in simulations of EURO-CORDEX climate models for central Europe

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F24%3A00584854" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/24:00584854 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/86652079:_____/24:00600525

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-024-07156-8" target="_blank" >https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-024-07156-8</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07156-8" target="_blank" >10.1007/s00382-024-07156-8</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Links of atmospheric circulation to cold days in simulations of EURO-CORDEX climate models for central Europe

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Despite ongoing climate change and warming, extreme cold events still negatively affect human society. Since cold air incursions are related to specific circulation patterns, the main aims of this study are (1) to validate how well current EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) reproduce these synoptic links and (2) to assess possible future changes in atmospheric circulation conducive to cold events. Using anomalies of daily minimum temperature, we define cold days (CDs) in central Europe and analyse their characteristics over the historical (1979−2020) and future (2070−2099) periods. We classify wintertime atmospheric circulation by applying a novel technique based on Sammon mapping to the state-of-the-art ERA5 reanalysis output. We discover that circulation types (CT) conducive to CDs are characterised by easterly advection and/or clear-sky anticyclonic conditions. While the RCM ensemble generally reproduces these synoptic links relatively well, we observe biases in the occurrence of CDs in individual simulations. These biases can be attributed to inadequately reproduced frequencies of CTs conducive to CDs (primarily propagating from driving data), as well as to deviations in the conduciveness within these CTs (primarily originating in the RCMs). Interestingly, two competing trends are identified for the end of the twenty-first century: (1) most RCMs project an increased frequency of CTs conducive to CDs, suggesting more frequent CDs, while (2) the same CTs are projected to warm faster compared to their counterparts, suggesting weaker CDs. The interplay between these opposing trends contributes to the overall uncertainty surrounding the recurrence and severity of future winter extremes in central Europe.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Links of atmospheric circulation to cold days in simulations of EURO-CORDEX climate models for central Europe

Popis výsledku anglicky

Despite ongoing climate change and warming, extreme cold events still negatively affect human society. Since cold air incursions are related to specific circulation patterns, the main aims of this study are (1) to validate how well current EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) reproduce these synoptic links and (2) to assess possible future changes in atmospheric circulation conducive to cold events. Using anomalies of daily minimum temperature, we define cold days (CDs) in central Europe and analyse their characteristics over the historical (1979−2020) and future (2070−2099) periods. We classify wintertime atmospheric circulation by applying a novel technique based on Sammon mapping to the state-of-the-art ERA5 reanalysis output. We discover that circulation types (CT) conducive to CDs are characterised by easterly advection and/or clear-sky anticyclonic conditions. While the RCM ensemble generally reproduces these synoptic links relatively well, we observe biases in the occurrence of CDs in individual simulations. These biases can be attributed to inadequately reproduced frequencies of CTs conducive to CDs (primarily propagating from driving data), as well as to deviations in the conduciveness within these CTs (primarily originating in the RCMs). Interestingly, two competing trends are identified for the end of the twenty-first century: (1) most RCMs project an increased frequency of CTs conducive to CDs, suggesting more frequent CDs, while (2) the same CTs are projected to warm faster compared to their counterparts, suggesting weaker CDs. The interplay between these opposing trends contributes to the overall uncertainty surrounding the recurrence and severity of future winter extremes in central Europe.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GJ19-24425Y" target="_blank" >GJ19-24425Y: Nebezpečné zimní počasí ve výstupech klimatických modelů</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Climate Dynamics

ISSN

0930-7575

e-ISSN

1432-0894

Svazek periodika

62

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

6

Stát vydavatele periodika

DE - Spolková republika Německo

Počet stran výsledku

17

Strana od-do

5157-5173

Kód UT WoS článku

001194788800004

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85188780801