Short-term association between hot nights and mortality: a multicountry analysis in 178 locations considering hourly ambient temperature

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F25%3A00638498" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/25:00638498 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/60460709:41330/25:105979

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412025004702?via%3Dihub" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412025004702?via%3Dihub</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2025.109719" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.envint.2025.109719</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Short-term association between hot nights and mortality: a multicountry analysis in 178 locations considering hourly ambient temperature

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Background: The rise in hot nights over recent decades and projections of further increases due to climate change underscores the critical need to understand their impact. This knowledge is essential for shaping public health strategies and guiding adaptation efforts. Despite their significance, research on the implications of hot nights remains limited. Objective: This study estimated the association between hot-night excess (the sum of excess heat during the nighttime above a threshold) and duration (the percent of nighttime with a positive excess) based on hourly ambient temperatures and daily mortality in the warm season over multiple locations worldwide. Methods: We fitted time series regression models to mortality in 178 locations across 44 countries using a distributed lag non-linear model over lags of 0–3 days, controlling for daily maximum temperature and daily mean absolute humidity. Next, we used a multivariate meta-regression model to pool results and estimated attributable burdens. Results: We found a positive, increasing mortality risk with hot-night excess and duration. Assuming 0 as a reference, the pooled relative risks of death associated with extreme excess and duration, defined as the 90th percentile in each index, were both similar at 1.026 (95 % CI, 1.017, 1.036) and 1.026 (95 % CI, 1.013, 1.040). The overall estimated attributable fractions were also observed to be closely similar at 0.60 % (95 % CI, 0.09, 1.10 %) and 0.62 % (95 % CI, 0.00, 1.23 %), respectively. Discussion: This study provides new evidence that hot nights have a specific contribution to heat-related mortality risk. Modeling thermal characteristics’ sub-hourly impact on mortality during the night could improve decision-making for long-term adaptions and preventive public health strategies.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Short-term association between hot nights and mortality: a multicountry analysis in 178 locations considering hourly ambient temperature

Popis výsledku anglicky

Background: The rise in hot nights over recent decades and projections of further increases due to climate change underscores the critical need to understand their impact. This knowledge is essential for shaping public health strategies and guiding adaptation efforts. Despite their significance, research on the implications of hot nights remains limited. Objective: This study estimated the association between hot-night excess (the sum of excess heat during the nighttime above a threshold) and duration (the percent of nighttime with a positive excess) based on hourly ambient temperatures and daily mortality in the warm season over multiple locations worldwide. Methods: We fitted time series regression models to mortality in 178 locations across 44 countries using a distributed lag non-linear model over lags of 0–3 days, controlling for daily maximum temperature and daily mean absolute humidity. Next, we used a multivariate meta-regression model to pool results and estimated attributable burdens. Results: We found a positive, increasing mortality risk with hot-night excess and duration. Assuming 0 as a reference, the pooled relative risks of death associated with extreme excess and duration, defined as the 90th percentile in each index, were both similar at 1.026 (95 % CI, 1.017, 1.036) and 1.026 (95 % CI, 1.013, 1.040). The overall estimated attributable fractions were also observed to be closely similar at 0.60 % (95 % CI, 0.09, 1.10 %) and 0.62 % (95 % CI, 0.00, 1.23 %), respectively. Discussion: This study provides new evidence that hot nights have a specific contribution to heat-related mortality risk. Modeling thermal characteristics’ sub-hourly impact on mortality during the night could improve decision-making for long-term adaptions and preventive public health strategies.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10510 - Climatic research

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Environment International

ISSN

0160-4120

e-ISSN

1873-6750

Svazek periodika

203

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

Sept.

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

11

Strana od-do

109719

Kód UT WoS článku

001563970900001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-105014258436